Rio Times Daily Market Brief · Argentina

Thursday, May 14, 2026 · Covering Wednesday, May 13 Session

Summary

The S&P Merval fell 1.96% to 2,738,354.49 on Wednesday May 13, 2026, breaking decisively below the double-tested capitulation floor at 2,749,913 that held on May 6 and May 11. The close was at the session low as pre-CPI de-risking accelerated. INDEC releases April CPI Thursday at 16:00 Buenos Aires — the binary that decides whether the Merval retests 2,606,735 or recovers above 2,750K.

The Big Three

1.
The S&P Merval fell 1.96% (−54,638.76 points) to 2,738,354.49 — third-worst 2026 session by percentage. Intraday range 2,734,951–2,807,294, close at session low. The index broke below the double-tested capitulation floor at 2,749,913 that produced reversals on May 6 and May 11.

2.
The technical picture flipped from neutral-pending to confirmed bearish. MACD histogram −11,884 with line −24,166 vs signal −12,281 deepened the crossover. RSI fast 40.88 crossed below slow 44.87 for the first time since February. The 200-DMA at 2,800,941 is now overhead resistance.

3.
INDEC releases April CPI Thursday at 16:00 BA — the binary that decides the next leg. Trajectory: Jan +2.9%, Feb +2.9%, Mar +3.4% (32.6% YoY). Sub-3% launches toward 2,847K Kijun. A third consecutive 3%+ print extends the plateau and opens the trendline at 2,606,735.

02Session Data

Merval: BYMA close. USD/ARS: within BCRA band. Argentina was the worst LatAm performer Wednesday ahead of the INDEC CPI binary.

03Key Movers

Winners

Energy was the only sector with positive prints. YPF (YPFD) held firm on Brent above US$109 — the most direct beneficiary of the war-driven oil bid. Pampa Energía (PAMP) and Vista Energy (VIST) traded firm on Vaca Muerta production. Defensive consumer names — Mercado Libre (MELI) ADR equivalents — closed marginally green on low-beta rotation.

Losers

The Milei-trade names led the decline. Banco Macro (BMA), Grupo Galicia (GGAL), and BBVA Argentina (BBAR) — the highest-beta disinflation proxies — sold hard as positioning unwound. Telecom Argentina (TECO2) and Transportadora de Gas del Sur (TGS) followed. Breadth was the worst of any 2026 session that didn’t break the May 6 / May 11 lows: roughly 85% closed red.

§04 · Market Commentary

Wednesday was the technical event the Merval had been setting up for two weeks. The capitulation floor at 2,749,913 — defended twice on May 6 and May 11 — broke decisively, with the close 11,559 points below at the session low and no intraday reversal pattern. Pre-binary de-risking ahead of Thursday’s INDEC CPI was the dominant driver; the wider LatAm risk-off (Brazil −1.80%, Colombia fourth new 2026 low) amplified the move.

The structural overlay still supports patience. World Bank projects 3.6% growth in 2026 (highest in LatAm). The US$20B IMF EFF provides the backstop with US$12B disbursed. BCRA buys ~5% of FX volume daily. The Milei fiscal-surplus framework is intact. But the thesis requires April CPI below 3% to validate the disinflation trajectory; a third consecutive 3%+ print extends the drawdown to the 2,606,735 trendline.

05Technical Analysis

The Merval closed at the session low — below the double-tested capitulation floor (2,749,913), the lower Bollinger Band (2,781,573), and the 200-day SMA (2,800,941). MACD histogram −11,884, line −24,166 vs signal −12,281 — bearish crossover deepened. RSI fast 40.88 collapsed below slow 44.87, first cross below since February. The ascending trendline at 2,606,735 — 4.8% below — is the line that defines mechanical exhaustion versus a structural break.

06Forward Look

07Questions & Answers

Verdict

The Merval enters Thursday at 2,738,354 — below the double-tested capitulation floor — with the entire structure waiting on INDEC at 16:00 BA. Momentum (RSI 40.88 below slow 44.87, MACD line −24,166) provides no directional signal independent of the data. The structural thesis (3.6% growth, IMF backstop) remains intact regardless. The trade is binary: sub-3% CPI launches the recovery; 3.5%+ opens the trendline at 2,606,735.

Related: Tuesday’s Merval · Brazil Ibovespa crash · Colombia COLCAP.

Watch for: a sub-3% CPI print to launch toward 2,847K, or a 3.5%+ print to extend toward the 2,606,735 trendline.