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“My gut reaction was finding partners to share the cost risk,” he said.

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But after reviewing Equinor’s public statements and the project’s continued progress, he said “the project still remains as likely and as viable as prior to this.”

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Equinor has repeatedly said it remains on track to make a final investment decision early next year and could bring in another partner afterward. Oberstoetter said that approach is common for large offshore developments since companies often bring in or sell stakes to other partners after approving a project rather than before.

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“If Equinor hadn’t stepped up, that would have been a risk we’d be talking about,” he said.

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In some ways, Oberstoetter said, sole ownership can simplify the path to a final investment decision since partners in major offshore developments can differ over how a project should be designed and built. But with BP gone, Equinor can pursue its preferred development concept without negotiating those choices with another owner.

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“It makes it easier for Equinor to go ahead with its development concept,” he said, adding that the company must also shoulder the project’s full financial risk.

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With ownership largely settled, analysts say the bigger question is whether Bay du Nord’s economics justify a $14-billion commitment from Equinor, but they also say many of the factors that delayed the company’s decision in 2023 have since improved.

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Oberstoetter said the company has refined its plans, continued engineering work and learned more about nearby discoveries that could improve the project’s economics. He also said Equinor has renewed its focus on growing its international oil and gas business.

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Johnston said supply chain conditions have significantly improved since the project was paused, although the uncertainty has now shifted from construction costs toward the outlook for global oil markets.

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His biggest question is not whether Bay du Nord can make money, but whether Equinor will feel comfortable approving such a large investment next year.

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“I don’t think this changes my view at this stage over the prospects of the project going ahead,” he said. “But I do think that it changes the tone.”

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Johnston said the prospect of weaker oil markets next year could be a key external risk to be considered when making a final investment decision, but Oberstoetter said the more fundamental question is whether Equinor is satisfied with the project’s economics.

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“Can they get comfortable with development costs and the expected returns?” he said. “Cost is definitely a big one.”

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He said additional discoveries that could increase the amount of recoverable oil tied to Bay du Nord would further strengthen the project’s business case.

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Both analysts also cautioned against reading too much into BP’s decision itself.

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Johnston said the decision appears to reflect the company’s broader effort to simplify its portfolio rather than a loss of confidence in Bay du Nord and that it has been focusing investment on projects it directly operates instead of holding minority stakes in developments run by other companies.

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For Newfoundland and Labrador, however, the stakes extend well beyond a single corporate transaction. The offshore oil industry accounts for nearly one-fifth of the province’s economy and more than half of its exports.

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Bay du Nord is expected to become Newfoundland and Labrador’s next major offshore oil development as production from the province’s existing fields declines over the next two decades. Industry forecasts suggest output could sharply fall by 2040 and potentially wind down almost entirely by about 2050 unless new projects come online.