Brazil · Elections 2026

Relations between Brasília and Washington have soured over tariffs, sanctions and crime policy during the campaign. Brazil’s own spies now describe that pressure as a critical risk to the October vote.

The Palácio do Planalto in Brasília, which received the Abin report. Photo: Senado Federal / Wikimedia Commons (CC BY 2.0)

Abin, Brazil’s federal intelligence agency, sent a confidential warning about US pressure on the election in late August. Folha de S.Paulo columnist Mônica Bergamo revealed the report, and Metrópoles and CNN Brasil followed on 19 September.

Why This Matters

Brazil holds the first round of its general election on 4 October 2026. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva faces Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a race that recent polls show as a statistical tie.

The assessment was classified, so it became public only through a leak to the press. It also lands days before Lula plans to warn Donald Trump at the UN not to interfere in the vote.

What the Report Says

According to Gazeta do Povo and Brasil de Fato, the document is titled “Threats to the 2026 electoral process”. It went to the presidential palace, the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) and the Justice Ministry, CNN Brasil reported.

Metrópoles said Abin raised the possibility of US interference to a “nível de criticidade”, or critical level. The agency saw a “selective intensification and reconfiguration” of US pressure on Brazil, according to the same report.

CNN Brasil said Abin drew on Trump administration documents from November 2025 to May 2026. Those papers list goals such as reducing rival powers’ influence in Latin America, the agency noted.

Abin cited US Treasury sanctions of 1 July on two Brazilians and four firms allegedly tied to the PCC gang. It also named Secretary of State Marco Rubio as central to the pressure, Metrópoles reported.

The report recalls a White House draft declaration asking Brazil not to limit “political dissidents” at the polls. Brasil de Fato said the report stresses political, economic and diplomatic pressure rather than direct manipulation of the vote.

How Each Side Has Responded

Lula has called the draft declaration “arquivo morto”, meaning a dead file, Metrópoles reported. Abin, the presidential palace and the US Embassy had not commented publicly on the leaked report in the coverage reviewed.

In August, the State Department said the United States “respects the Brazilian people and candidates chosen in free and fair elections”. Forças Terrestres, a defence news site, cited that statement in its coverage of the Abin report.

What Is Not Yet Known

The full report has not been published, and only excerpts have reached the press. It is not known what measures, if any, the TSE or the government adopted in response.

Frequently Asked Questions

Sources: Metrópoles, Abin warns Lula government of critical US interference, CNN Brasil, Abin alerts government and TSE, Gazeta do Povo, report title and recipients, Brasil de Fato, contents of the Abin report, Forças Terrestres, reactions and State Department statement