Cabo Verde, an Atlantic archipelago off West Africa, elects its president on Sunday, 15 November, and the sitting president is the heavy favourite in prediction markets, where traders bet real money on outcomes. Our Cape Verde presidential election 2026 coverage tracks every update.

A candidate needs more than 50% of valid votes to win outright, or the top two meet in a runoff on Sunday, 29 November. Polling stations have usually been open from 8 a.m. to 6 p.m. local time, which is 4 a.m. to 2 p.m. ET.

Six Candidates on the Ballot

José Maria Neves, the incumbent president, seeks a second term with the backing of the African Party for the Independence of Cabo Verde (PAICV), which now leads the government. Joana Rosa, a former justice minister, is backed by the Movement for Democracy (MpD), which led the previous government.

Four others are on the ballot: Gilson Alves, Casimiro de Pina, Antero Tavares and Loisito Tavares de Sousa. The field was admitted by the Constitutional Court of Cabo Verde, which vets candidacies, and de Pina finished third in 2021.

In 2021 Neves won the first round with 51.8%, ahead of Carlos Veiga, a former prime minister and MpD founder, on 42.4%. Abstention reached 52%.

The Presidential Palace in Praia, the capital of Cabo Verde. File photo: Ji-Elle, CC BY-SA 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons.

What Has Changed Since Our Earlier Reports

The official campaign opened on Thursday, 29 October, and ends on Friday, 13 November, under the calendar of the National Elections Commission (CNE), the body that administers the vote. Votes are cast on Sunday, 15 November, and a runoff would follow two weeks later.

Neves’s party took over the government after the May parliamentary election, so the vote also tests whether voters want president and government from one camp. In 2021 Neves won while the MpD governed, a pairing known as cohabitation.

What Prediction Markets Say

Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market, priced Neves at 87.5% on 1 November at 8:22 a.m. ET. Rosa stood at 3.9%, and US$34,544 has been traded on the market.

That is a thin market, so a few large bets can move it. Prices are bets, not polls, and no independent opinion poll has surfaced.

Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.

What It Means for US Readers

In presidential elections, Cabo Verdeans abroad vote in person rather than by mail, and the United States forms part of the Americas diaspora constituency. Cabo Verde has a large diaspora in New England, especially around Boston and Providence.

Official information is on the CNE site, cne.cv. See our guide for US visitors to the election and our report on the campaign opening.

What Is Not Known

No independent opinion poll from a named institute could be found. The CNE has not published polling hours for the presidential vote in the sources we reviewed, and the 8 a.m. to 6 p.m. hours follow past elections.

The inauguration date is unconfirmed, and so are the exact voter-roll totals for the presidential vote, which may differ from May’s figures.

Frequently Asked Questions

When is the Cabo Verde presidential election?

The first round is Sunday, 15 November 2026. A runoff is set for Sunday, 29 November if no candidate wins more than 50%.

Who are the main candidates?

President José Maria Neves is backed by the PAICV, and former justice minister Joana Rosa is backed by the MpD. Four other candidates are also on the ballot, for six in total.

What do prediction markets say?

Polymarket gave Neves 87.5% and Rosa 3.9% on 1 November. These are bets, not polls, and no independent poll has been found.

This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief