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Live tonight
Follow Brazil’s vote count live
The official TSE count with every candidate’s share, the state map and what a runoff would mean, updated through the night.
Flávio Bolsonaro leads Brazil’s first-round count with 47.85% of valid votes, below the 50% line, with 92.53% of polling stations reported. Lula has 44.20%. The gap has narrowed from 7.3 to 3.65 percentage points since the 19:14 count.
Key Facts
- The count: 92.53% of polling stations counted as of 20:40 Brasília time (19:40 US Eastern, 00:40 Lisbon on 5 October), according to the electoral court (TSE).
- Flávio Bolsonaro: 47.85% of valid votes (52,623,294 votes). He is a senator for the conservative Liberal Party (PL).
- Lula: 44.20% of valid votes (48,611,737 votes). He is the leftist president, from the Workers’ Party (PT).
- The rest: Augusto Cury 2.92%, Renan Santos 2.29%, Ronaldo Caiado 2.24%, Romeu Zema 0.28%. Six other candidates are each below 0.2%.
- Why it matters: A candidate needs more than 50% of valid votes to win outright. No candidate is above 50% so far. If nobody gets there, a runoff follows on Sunday 25 October.
- What it means for you: Brazil’s stock market reopens on Monday 5 October. Treat tonight’s shares as a partial picture until the TSE finishes the count.
Where the Count Stands
Brazil’s electoral court, the TSE, showed Flávio Bolsonaro ahead with 47.85% of valid votes at 20:40 Brasília time (19:40 US Eastern, 00:40 Lisbon). Lula had 44.20%. The gap was about 4.0 million votes, or 3.65 percentage points. No candidate is above 50% so far. A share above 50% at the end of the count would avoid a runoff, and the count is not finished.
The TSE had counted 92.53% of polling stations, which is 461,961 of 499,248 sections. It had not declared a result. At 19:14 Brasília time, with 64.81% counted, Flávio Bolsonaro had 49.58% and Lula 42.25%.
The rule is simple. A candidate wins in the first round with more than half of the valid votes. Blank and null ballots are not valid. The line applies to the final count, not to a partial one.
Behind the two leaders, Augusto Cury has 2.92%, Renan Santos 2.29%, Ronaldo Caiado 2.24% and Romeu Zema 0.28%.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil — Live Market BoardInside: market breadth, the sector heatmap, currencies & rates, the Latin America scoreboard and the full instrument board.Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil — Live Market Board
B3 · São Paulo
Oct 4, 2026 · 20:43
Ibovespa · benchmark
192,114.55
+2.63%
L 167,142day rangeH 168,310
+21.85% over 12 months
Market breadth · 15 names
47% advancing
7 ▲ advancing8 declining ▼
Currencies, rates & key inputs
Sector heatmap · average move today
Mining
+1.16%
VALE3, CSNA3, GGBR4
Industrials
+0.20%
WEGE3, RENT3
Financials
-0.10%
ITUB4, BBDC4, BBAS3, B3SA3
Energy
-0.12%
PETR4, PRIO3
Consumer Staples
-0.80%
ABEV3
Consumer Disc.
-2.63%
AZZA3
Latin America scoreboard
IndexLastTodayStrength
IbovespaBrazil
192,114.55
+2.63%
S&P/BMV IPCMexico
64,531.68
+1.10%
S&P IPSAChile
10,916.57
+0.08%
S&P MERVALArgentina
2,767,663
+0.32%
MSCI COLCAPColombia
2,515.02
-0.59%
BVL S&P PerúPeru
59,751.67
+0.18%
Full instrument board
| IBOV | 192,114.55 | +2.63% | +21.85% | 187,197.46 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
Largest moves today
IBOV
192,114.55
+2.63%
AZZA3
15.89
-2.63%
SUZB3
41.33
+2.35%
GGBR4
24.69
+2.19%
ENEV3
24.21
-1.38%
ITUB4
38.60
-1.03%
VALE3
72.97
+0.83%
ABEV3
14.89
-0.80%
The session read
The Ibovespa rose 2.63%, with breadth negative — 7 of 15 names higher. Materials led, while Consumer Disc. lagged.
From The Rio Times
Related coverage · 4 Oct 2026
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Why the Early Count Is Not the Result
States report at different speeds. In the TSE’s state tables, pulled at 00:40 Lisbon (19:40 US Eastern), Paraná (99.7% counted) and the Federal District (100%) were complete or nearly so. Flávio Bolsonaro led both, with 60% and 51%.
Bahia (80% counted), Ceará (83%) and Pernambuco (89%) were still reporting. Lula led them with 65%, 62% and 63%. São Paulo (96%) and Rio de Janeiro (86%), two of the biggest electorates, were further along. Flávio Bolsonaro led São Paulo with 52% and Rio de Janeiro with 53%. In Minas Gerais (89% counted) he led with 49% to Lula’s 43%.
The national shares will therefore keep moving as those states report. The final polls had pointed to a different order. Datafolha, in a poll published on 3 October, had Lula at 45% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 42% of valid votes. A poll is not a result, and neither is a partial count. Read more in our final polls report.
Who Is Who
Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) is a senator for Rio de Janeiro and the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. His Liberal Party sits on the political right.
Lula (PT) is Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the president since 2023. He also governed from 2003 to 2010. His Workers’ Party is on the left, and his running mate is Vice President Geraldo Alckmin.
Augusto Cury (Avante) is an author and psychiatrist. Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) is a former governor of Goiás. Renan Santos (Missão) represents the newer Missão party. Romeu Zema (Novo) represents the Novo party.
Why It Matters for the US
Brazil is the largest economy in Latin America, and US investors hold it through stocks, bonds and funds. The B3 exchange in São Paulo is closed on Sundays. The first market test comes on Monday 5 October.
US-listed shares of Petrobras and Vale, and the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ), trade during US hours on Monday. The real, Brazil’s currency, will also react. A clear first-round result would remove three weeks of uncertainty. A runoff would keep it alive until 25 October.
The winner will also set the tone of Brazil’s relations with Washington, including trade. Our guide on what the election means for US investors covers the market angle, and our election explainer covers the rules.
What Happens Next
The TSE keeps publishing as more stations report. The share counted should rise through the night, and the leaders’ percentages will change with it. On these numbers the course points to a runoff on 25 October, but the TSE has not confirmed one.
If nobody ends above 50% of valid votes, the top two meet in a runoff on Sunday 25 October 2026. If someone does, the TSE would declare a first-round winner once the count is complete. We update this article as the TSE numbers change, and our live results page carries the state map.
What Is Not Known
We do not know whether the lead will hold as Bahia, Ceará, Pernambuco and the other states still reporting finish their counts. We also do not know whether a runoff will be needed. Only the TSE count answers that.
Sources
- Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE), Resultados portal, presidential count, data of 4 October 2026, 20:40 Brasília time.
- TSE, state results tables, pulled 4 October 2026, 19:40 US Eastern.
- Datafolha poll published on 3 October 2026.
More on Brazil: Brazil hub. Live: Brazil election results.
Background: Brazil: Split Payment, the World’s Broadest Instant Tax Collection, Will Only Be Mandatory in 2028.
Background: Fintechs and Digital Banks in Brazil 2026: Market Guide.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is leading Brazil’s presidential election count?
At 20:40 Brasília time (19:40 US Eastern, 00:40 Lisbon), the electoral court (TSE) showed Flávio Bolsonaro of the conservative Liberal Party (PL) with 47.85% of valid votes and President Lula of the leftist Workers’ Party (PT) with 44.20%. No candidate is above 50% so far, and 92.53% of polling stations had been counted, so the shares will move.
Has anyone won Brazil’s election yet?
No. The TSE has not declared a result, and no candidate is above 50% so far. A candidate wins in the first round only with more than half of the valid votes once the count is complete. Blank and null ballots do not count as valid. If nobody passes that line, the top two meet in a runoff.
Why can an early count change so much?
Brazil’s states report at different speeds. In the TSE’s state tables pulled at 00:40 Lisbon, Bahia, Ceará and Pernambuco, where Lula leads, were 80% to 89% counted, while Paraná and the Federal District, where Flávio Bolsonaro leads, were complete or nearly so.
When is a runoff, and where can I follow the count from the US?
A runoff would be held on Sunday 25 October 2026. The official count is on the TSE’s Resultados portal at resultados.tse.jus.br, and The Rio Times live results page shows every candidate’s share and the state map.
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