Lula, Brazil’s president, photographed on 9 July 2026. File photo. (Photo: Lula Oficial, the president’s official photo account, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons)

BRAZIL · ELECTIONS

Published Sunday, 25 October, 7:28 p.m. ET · Updated 8:09 p.m. ET · Source: Superior Electoral Court (TSE), Brazil’s election authority, results feed; Kalshi, a prediction market

Lula, Brazil’s president, leads the official count of the runoff, the second-round vote between the top two candidates, in the Brazil election 2026 with 51.74% of valid votes (votes for a candidate, excluding blank and spoiled ballots). Flávio Bolsonaro, senator for Rio de Janeiro and son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, has 48.26%, with 96.83% of polling stations counted at 8:09 p.m. ET.

That is 62,066,282 votes to 57,890,004, a gap of 4,176,278, according to the electoral court (TSE). Our live map on the Brazil election results page shows each state’s counted share and both candidates’ percentages as you hover over it.

Brazil Election Data Room

Runoff poll average: Flávio Bolsonaro 51.0%, Lula 49.0%

45 national polls from 21 pollsters since 4 October, updated hourly. Every poll, free to download.

Where the Count Stands

At 7:58 p.m. ET, with 86.41% counted, Lula led by 3,096,041 votes. Now Lula leads by 4,176,278 at 96.83% counted, so the lead has widened.

Lula leads in all nine states of the Northeast, Brazil’s poorer region, including Bahia (71.2%, 96.19% counted) and Pernambuco (69.23%, 98.93% counted). Flávio leads in Paraná (62.6%, 99.42% counted) and Rio Grande do Sul (57.82%, 99.84% counted).

Why the Big States Matter

São Paulo, Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro hold about 40% of Brazil’s 158.7 million registered voters. São Paulo is 96.08% counted, Rio de Janeiro 81.66% and Minas Gerais 96.77%.

So far Flávio leads in São Paulo (54.05%) and in Rio (53.45%). Rio is the furthest behind in the count, so the gap can still move in either direction.

Minas Gerais

Minas Gerais, the second-largest state, holds about 10% of Brazil’s voters and is 96.77% counted. Lula leads there by 81,112 votes, or 50.33% to 49.67%, so it is effectively level.

Lula won the state with 50.2% in the 2022 runoff. In this year’s first round, Flávio took 48.2% there and Lula 43.3%.

By camp, the 14 states and the Federal District (the capital region) that Flávio won in the first round hold 66.3% of voters and are 95.8% counted; he leads in 14 of those 15 areas. The 12 states Lula won hold 33.7% of voters and are 98.5% counted; Lula leads in 12 of the 12.

What Else Is Happening

Voting ran until 6 p.m. ET (7 p.m. in Brasília) after Cristiano Zanin, a justice of the Supreme Federal Court (STF), ordered an extension nationwide, as we reported earlier.

We have no ruling on any challenge to the vote.

Votes cast abroad are being counted too: with 1,094 of 1,351 overseas sections counted, Lula has 56.33% and Flávio 43.67%, according to the TSE.

What Prediction Markets Say

Our Brazil election odds page follows the prices live.

What It Means for US Readers

Brazil’s stock exchange reopens on Monday, 26 October, at 9 a.m. ET, before the New York open. US investors who hold Brazilian shares through American depositary receipts (ADRs), US-listed certificates of foreign stocks, can see early moves in pre-market trading.

What Is Not Known

The TSE has not said when it expects to publish a final result. We do not know how the uncounted votes in São Paulo, Rio and Minas Gerais will split.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who leads Brazil’s runoff count?

At 8:09 p.m. ET, with 96.83% of polling stations counted, Lula had 51.74% of valid votes and Flávio 48.26%, according to the TSE results feed. The figures change every minute.

Who declares the winner of Brazil’s runoff?

The Superior Electoral Court (TSE) publishes the official results. Early counts and prediction-market prices are not official outcomes.

Sources: Superior Electoral Court (TSE) official results feed, resultados.tse.jus.br (data timestamp 8:09 p.m. ET); Kalshi public market data (8:00 p.m. ET).

This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief