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BRAZIL · FINANCE

Foreign Investors Pull Most From Brazil’s Stock Market Since 2020. (Photo Internet reproduction)

After pouring into Brazilian equities at the start of the year, foreign money has changed direction fast — and May marked the most decisive turn since the pandemic crash.

The biggest monthly exit from the stock market since 2020

Foreign investors pulled more capital out of Brazil’s B3 stock exchange in May than in any month since March 2020, when the onset of the pandemic triggered a global flight from risk. The reversal was abrupt: every trading session of the month saw net outflows, in a sharp contrast to the heavy inflows that opened the year. Even so, the damage is relative — the cumulative balance for 2026 remains positive at R$41.6bn ($8.27bn), meaning foreigners are still net buyers of Brazilian stocks on the year, just far less aggressively than in the first quarter.

The trend had been building for weeks. After strong inflows in January, the monthly figures decelerated steadily — and in May they flipped firmly negative for the first time this year.

Why the money is leaving

Analysts attribute the reversal mainly to forces outside Brazil. JPMorgan, the US bank, pointed to a global sector rotation toward technology stocks, rising yields on US Treasury bonds, a more hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, and a broadly reduced appetite for emerging markets. With commodities a heavy weight in the B3, an easing of Middle East tensions also prompted investors to rotate out of commodity-linked shares. The bank’s assessment is that the reasons behind the decline are “more external than internal,” and that foreign investors are likely to stay on the sidelines until risks normalize — including in the Strait of Hormuz — oil prices fall, and US bond yields retreat.

The local backdrop

Domestic factors have reinforced the caution. Market expectations for Brazil’s benchmark Selic interest rate at year-end have climbed, frustrating earlier bets on cheaper money and making fixed income more attractive relative to equities. An approaching election cycle has added to the wariness, as foreign capital typically trims exposure to emerging markets when political calendars turn uncertain. The result is an Ibovespa that has retreated from the near-200,000-point levels it touched only weeks earlier.

What to watch

The open question is whether May’s exit is a pause or the start of a longer retreat. The still-positive year-to-date balance and the largely external nature of the drivers suggest the door has not slammed shut; a calming of geopolitical risk, softer oil and lower US yields could quickly bring foreign buyers back. But with local rates elevated and an election ahead, the bar for a sustained return of foreign flows has risen. For now, domestic investors have been absorbing much of the selling, keeping the market steadier than the headline outflow alone would imply.