Published Wednesday, 4 November, 6:30 p.m. ET (1:30 a.m. Thursday in Jerusalem) · Source: Israel’s Central Elections Committee, President’s Office, Knesset, Kalshi, Polymarket

Israel’s election is over on paper, but the fight over who runs the country has only started. Our Israel election aftermath and coalition talks page tracks every step.

On Wednesday, 4 November, the Central Elections Committee, which runs the vote, certified the 27 October result. It checked 9,069 polling stations and found “no evidence of irregularities that compromised the integrity” of the vote.

Why the Result Is Now Binding

Justice Noam Sohlberg, a Supreme Court judge who chairs the committee, handed the official results to President Isaac Herzog. He said the results are “binding on us all” and called attempts to cast doubt on them “a real danger.”

The full committee approved the result by 15 votes to 2, with 14 abstentions. The two votes against came from Otzma Yehudit, the conservative party of National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir.

Ben-Gvir had written that “the elections were stolen, the results are fraudulent, foreign countries interfered.” The committee did not accept that.

File photo: the Knesset, Israel’s parliament, in Jerusalem.

What the Foreign-Interference Claim Rests On

The Shin Bet, Israel’s internal security agency, told the committee that foreign financing and influence activities involving “enormous sums of money” are widespread. It said they affect thousands of people.

Sohlberg described such concerns as suspicions at this stage. The Shin Bet has not published evidence, and its inquiry is ongoing.

The Seat Math Nobody Can Win Alone

The bloc backing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu won 53 of 120 seats, and the opposition bloc led by former army chief Gadi Eisenkot won 48. Arab-led parties took 19, so neither side reaches the 61 seats needed to govern alone.

Netanyahu’s Likud is the largest party with 27 seats. Eisenkot’s Yashar has 21, B’Yachad 12, the Joint List 11, and the Democrats and Ra’am 8 each. Turnout was 77.9%.

What Herzog Does Next

Herzog opened consultations on Wednesday and asked party leaders for “originality and creativity, courage and goodwill.” Ra’am, an Arab party led by Mansour Abbas, has said it will recommend Eisenkot.

The larger parties meet Herzog on Thursday, 5 November, with Likud and Yashar last that evening. He then picks the candidate he judges most likely to form a government.

That person gets 28 days, which can be extended by 14. The new Knesset is sworn in on Tuesday, 10 November.

What Prediction Markets Say

Kalshi, a trading platform regulated in the US by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), prices Eisenkot at 65.0% to succeed Netanyahu as prime minister. Polymarket, a crypto-based platform, shows Eisenkot at 57.0% and Netanyahu at 31.1%, with about US$86.7 million traded on that market (6:22 p.m. ET, 4 November).

Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.

What It Means for US Readers

Israel is one of Washington’s closest allies, so the choice of prime minister shapes US policy on Gaza, Iran and defence aid. The certification removes the formal basis for challenging the result and puts the decision in Herzog’s hands.

A government built with or without Arab-party support would send a very different signal to Washington. Markets, which are bets and not votes, currently lean towards Eisenkot.

What Is Not Known

It is not known whom Herzog will designate or when he will announce it. It is also not clear which parties will formally recommend whom, because many meetings are still ahead.

We found no post-election poll from a named institute. The Shin Bet has not made its evidence public.

Frequently Asked Questions

Did Israel’s election committee find fraud?

No. It reviewed 9,069 polling stations and found no irregularities that compromised the integrity of the vote.

Can Netanyahu or Eisenkot reach 61 seats alone?

No. Netanyahu’s bloc holds 53 seats and Eisenkot’s holds 48 in the 120-seat Knesset. Arab-led parties hold 19.

Sources: Central Elections Committee, Israel’s election authority; Office of the President of Israel; Knesset, Israel’s parliament; Kalshi; Polymarket.

Read more: Israel’s Challenger Odds Jump to 47% · Israel election aftermath

This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief