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(Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of underlying inflation likely grew at a slower pace last month, offering policymakers some breathing room to address weakness in the US labor market.
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A report on Friday is forecast to show the personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy rose 0.2% in August, compared with 0.3% in July. On an annual basis, the so-called core measure is seen holding at a still-elevated 2.9%.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell pointed to a cooling labor market to explain why officials lowered interest rates on Wednesday for the first time this year, but he made clear that the central bank remains vigilant on inflation as President Donald Trump’s tariffs continue to work through the economy.
“It’s challenging to know what to do,” Powell said. “There are no risk-free paths now.”
Several Fed officials are set to speak at public events in the coming week, including Powell on Tuesday in Rhode Island. New Fed Governor Stephen Miran — on a temporary leave from his role as chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers — as well as Michelle Bowman, Mary Daly and Alberto Musalem are scheduled to offer their thoughts on the economy.
Along with the August price data, Friday’s report is projected to show inflation-adjusted consumer spending rose at a more subdued pace last month. Economists will also look at the personal income data to gauge the ability of consumers to continue spending — a key driver of US growth.
What Bloomberg Economics Says:
“We see signs that the economy is early in the recovery phase — and we agree with the direction of the median FOMC participant’s growth and unemployment revisions. One piece of supporting evidence will come from August spending data, which should show consumers are spending briskly even as income growth has been tepid.”
—Anna Wong, Stuart Paul, Eliza Winger, Estelle Ou and Chris G. Collins, economists. For full analysis, click here
Other data in the coming week will include an updated look at economic growth from the past several years. Separate reports will offer insights into the US merchandise trade deficit, weekly applications for unemployment benefits, and consumer confidence.
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For more, read Bloomberg Economics’ full Week Ahead for the US
Turning north, Canadian gross domestic product data by industry for July and a flash estimate for August will shed light on how the third quarter is shaping up after the US tariff war crushed Canada’s exports and forced a 1.6% contraction from April through June.