This will be the year of ...

Quarterbacks living under center. The NFL has developed into a shotgun league, where most quarterbacks take the majority of their snaps three to seven yards away from the center. But the increase in efficiency when it comes to snaps taken right behind the center should have coaches directing their quarterbacks to do more of it. Matthew Stafford, Caleb Williams, and Sam Darnold led the way in 2025, and others will follow. DF

Superteams. The Rams have pushed their chips to the middle of the table by loading up on high-end veterans and deferring much of the cost to future years. Myles Garrett and the unretired Aaron Donald join Stafford, Puka Nacua and a secondary reinforced by Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson. Superteams are never a sure thing in the NFL, but the Rams’ terrifyingly stacked roster looks awfully close. BAG

Super Bowl sequel hype, the year the scriptwriters lay a path for a Rams-Bengals rematch in Los Angeles. Both teams have gone to considerable lengths to shore up the defensive side of the ball, with the Rams swinging a mega trade for Garrett on the heels of the Bengals’ draft-week swap for Pro Bowl tackle Dexter Lawrence. AL

Finally saying goodbye to Aaron Rodgers. Let’s forget all the weirdness around the latter years of his career and remember Rodgers as simply one of the best to ever do it. Maybe with Mike McCarthy calling plays again, he can keep Pittsburgh in contention for a wildcard. Even if he fails, you can guarantee seeing some of the old magic in his final season in the NFL. GS

Best team that won’t make the playoffs ...

This is the second straight season I’ve pushed the Vikings here, and for the same reasons – the NFC North is the league’s most competitive division, and there is no outstanding candidate at quarterback. Brian Flores’s defense will be marvelous as it always is, and were it not for his ongoing lawsuit against the league, he’d probably be a head coach right now. A three-man quarterback competition is not the best way to maximize one’s competitive window, though. DF

Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb are back for an offense that can put up points with almost anybody. But the NFC is deep and unforgiving and the Cowboys’ front seven looks alarmingly short of difference-makers beyond star defensive tackle Quinnen Williams and Rashan Gary. Nine wins, constant frustration and a third straight January on the couch sounds about right. BAG

The Vikings’ defense always gives them a chance, and their offensive skill players are elite. It just comes down to what Murray can give them and, historically, that’s been a lot of inconsistency. AL

It will be a battle for Ben Johnson to keep the lightning in the bottle with a Bears defense that thrived on takeaways rather than fundamentals last season. They haven’t made many significant moves – outside first-round safety Dillon Thieneman – to tune things up, then the impressive offense could be let down with a near miss in the wildcard race. GS

Most underrated team ...

It’s easy to forget that in the 2021 season, the Bengals lost the Super Bowl by three points, and in 2022, they lost the AFC Championship game by the same margin. Those close calls were followed by matching 9-8 seasons in 2023 and 2024, and last season’s 6-11 faceplant. But if Joe Burrow can stay healthy, these Bengals have a ton of talent on both sides of the ball (led by new defensive line monster Lawrence). DF

Justin Herbert is class and Mike McDaniel’s arrival as offensive coordinator will add some imagination and flair to the offense. But winning 11 games still leaves you overshadowed when Denver’s complete roster and Patrick Mahomes’ Kansas City headline your division. The Chargers are quiet contenders hiding in plain sight. BAG

Last I checked, the Chiefs not only return Patrick Mahomes – the QB standard before the ACL injury (hardly the career killers they used to be) – but also Eric Bieniemy, the offensive coordinator who held players accountable and infused the team’s gameplay with so much confidence and whimsy. AL

Baker Mayfield was quietly brilliant last season and the Buccaneers have a strong roster across the board that finished 8-9 after a 6-2 start because of a number of key players missing time through injury. A bit of luck with the injury bug and the Bucs could spring a surprise. GS

Deshaun Watson: the worst quarterback $230m can buy. Photograph: Carolyn Kaster/AP

Johnny Manziel disaster waiting to happen department ...

The Browns’ quarterback situation. What else could it be? At this point, the Browns may as well bring Manziel back to add even more of a tragic comic cast to the whole thing. Head coach Todd Monken naming Deshaun Watson the Week 1 starter after Watson played horribly and alienated the fanbase in the preseason – never mind the horrid off-field history for which Watson has never taken an ounce of accountability – is merely the first level of Dante’s Inferno. DF

Cleveland naming Watson their Week 1 starter. A $230m albatross coming off multiple achilles tears would have been a risky first choice even if he’d been playing well before getting hurt. The Browns’ decision to roster three other quarterbacks, including Dillon Gabriel on injured reserve, feels prescient here. BAG

Anthony Richardson survived trade rumors and played well enough in camp to win the Colts’ backup QB job. But I say the detente only holds up as long as Daniel Jones’s health, which has never been the greatest, and Richardson’s uneven play in relief makes him a lame duck QB all over again – and his controversial behavior gives the organization cover for the bad fit once more. AL

The Browns missing Garrett’s tremendous pass rush and leadership is a recipe for a very tricky season if they make a slow start. And with Watson starting at quarterback they most likely will. GS

MVP …

Drake Maye, QB, New England Patriots. While I don’t have the Patriots winning the AFC East this season, I think that with the additions of receivers AJ Brown and Romeo Doubs, and coming off a full season in Josh McDaniels’ offense, Maye has everything he needs to take the next step to become an unquestioned Top 10 quarterback. He was exactly that until the Patriots faced a murderers’ row of defenses in the playoffs and his protection fell apart, but the growth he showed in everything from reading the field to taking disguised coverages apart presaged that next level. DF

Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens enter a new era under first-year coach Jesse Minter, but their fortunes still revolve around the NFL’s most disruptive player. The 29-year-old Jackson can unhinge defenses with his arm, legs or simply the threat of either. If Baltimore can get to 12 or 13 wins, he becomes the best bet to enter the exclusive club of three-time MVPs. BAG

Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals. Now that he has a defense behind him again, Joe Cool can get back to lighting up the scoreboard and his cigar after the dubs. AL

Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals. The quarterback finished last year showing some of his best work, so this could be Burrow’s time with incredible weapons Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins at his disposal. GS

The best rookie will be ...

Caleb Downs, DB, Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys’ 2025 defense was one of the worst in recent memory, which is why they replaced Matt Eberflus with Christian Parker as defensive coordinator. Parker’s background with the Philadelphia Eagles and defensive wizard Vic Fangio should pay immediate dividends, and Downs, the Ohio State alum selected with the 11th overall pick, should thrive in Parker’s concepts. DF

Jadarian Price, RB, Seattle Seahawks. With Kenneth Walker III gone and Zach Charbonnet starting the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list, the Seahawks will plug-and-play their first-round draft pick from Notre Dame into a backfield fresh off a Super Bowl title. BAG

Jeremiyah Love, RB, Arizona Cardinals. The Notre Dame prospect shouldn’t lack for opportunities to get the ball off tackle, in space or however else coach Mike LaFleur seeks to make use of the Saquon Barkley clone he simply couldn’t pass up in this year’s draft. AL

Carnell Tate, WR, Tennessee Titans. The No 4 pick has the total package of speed, route running and size. Tate caught the eye in training camp working with second-year quarterback Cam Ward. He will continue to do so throughout 2026. GS

AFC East champion

I’m picking the Bills for one reason, and it’s not Josh Allen – it’s Jim Leonhard. Buffalo’s new defensive coordinator is one of the finest minds in football, and he’ll have that defense asserting itself in ways it never did under Sean McDermott. New England will still be up there after 2025’s Cinderella season, but a tougher schedule and possible regression when it comes to their unusual injury luck should have them taking a step back. DF

New England won it last year and added star wideout Brown, but a regression from 14 wins is almost inevitable even if the Super Bowl loser’s curse has mostly been debunked. The Bills have Allen, DJ Moore and enough defensive talent for first-year coach Joe Brady to take back a division the Bills owned for five straight years before last season. BAG

Not because the Bills are necessarily better than the team that beat them to the top last year. But because New England’s schedule is so much tougher this year, and one loss makes all the difference in this chilly rivalry. AL

A straight shootout between New England and Buffalo. With fresh ideas from Brady, the Bills could have an important edge but there’s not much wriggle room in their opening five games against the Texans, Lions, Chargers, Patriots and Rams. Escaping with a winning record from that run would provide a solid platform to regain dominance. GS

Joe Burrow is an MVP candidate. But will he stay healthy? Photograph: Chris Szagola/AP

AFC North champion

Trading for Lawrence was the splashy story of the Bengals’ offseason, but there’s a lot more to like here – especially if Burrow can stay healthy. If he can, I like the Bengals to outpace the Ravens and Steelers based on star power with receivers Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, and a defense that has a lot of ascending players. DF

Minter has been dealt an enviable hand with Jackson, Derrick Henry and a roster built to win now. Cincinnati should push them, but the Ravens’ combination of quarterback play, running game and defensive stability remains the division’s safest bet. BAG

The Bengals. Here’s a sentence no one’s ever written until now: Mike Brown, the NFL’s resident cheapskate, is all in. AL

If Burrow just has a full season working behind an improved offensive line, then the Bengals have a great shot at unseating the Ravens. Their schedule is soft enough that they should be aiming for well over 10 wins. GS

AFC South champion

I’m taking the Texans over the Jaguars because of a defense that needs no schematic tricks to upend enemy offenses – they’re good enough to just line up and go right at you. All the Texans need from quarterback CJ Stroud is a level of play a bit above league-average. DF

The Texans defense is one of the NFL’s best with Will Anderson Jr, Derek Stingley Jr and Kamari Lassiter leading the way. Whether Stroud and the offense can hold up their end of the bargain remains the rub, but it should be enough in this middling division. BAG

The Jaguars repeatedly found ways to win tight games in 2025, giving a young team meaningful late-game experience – and a plausible foundation to turn last year’s surge into a deep postseason run. AL

The defense returns almost unchanged after a brilliant 2025 with some good additions in safety Reed Blankenship and rookie run-stopper Kayden McDonald. The Texans have quality and consistency a level above the messy Jaguars and Colts. GS

AFC West champion

I really like what new Chargers offensive coordinator McDaniel will do for Herbert, and I expect the Chiefs to rebound to a point from last season’s disaster. But the 2025 Broncos got all the way to the AFC Championship game, and they may have progressed further had quarterback Bo Nix not suffered a broken ankle in the divisional round. Now, Nix has a new best buddy to help him – former Miami Dolphins receiver Jaylen Waddle, who gives that offense a level of vertical juice it hasn’t had before. DF

They’d probably be defending NFL champions if not for Nix’s untimely injury in the playoffs. The Broncos defense remains elite, the offensive line is right there with it and the addition of Waddle gives them another weapon on offense alongside Courtland Sutton. Nix’s mission with the AFC’s deepest roster boils down to three words: do no harm. BAG

The Chargers made many of the right moves this offseason: keeping most of their receiving corps intact, adding David Njoku and big-play tailback Keaton Mitchell, and rebuilding the interior offensive line. Losing new center Tyler Biadasz to injury is a major blow, but if the line holds together well enough, Herbert and a deep, balanced roster give the Bolts a real chance to edge Kansas City and Denver. AL

The Chiefs and Chargers should be well in the mix but the Broncos still have the edge after last year’s dominance before Nix went down in the playoffs. GS

NFC East champion

The Cowboys bag the crown based on an offense that’s already fully loaded, and a defense that should be worlds better than in 2025. They are the Inverse Houston Texans in that all that defense has to do is play at a pretty good level to blow a lot of opponents away. DF

Brown is gone and Jalen Hurts will be working with his seventh different play-caller in as many NFL seasons, but the Eagles’ institutional strength has been the envy of the NFC East for decades now. A potentially top-five defense and a rejuvenated ground game featuring Saquon Barkley will provide enough margin for error to outlast a division filled with flawed rivals. BAG

With Brown and coordinator Kevin Patullo gone, the Eagles offense should fly again behind Barkley and Hurts – in make or break year mode not that long after leading the team to Super Bowl glory. AL

The Cowboys are hardly a sleeping giant, but if the defense is as reborn as defensive tackle Williams claims it is then maybe Dallas can finally balance the books with their dynamic offense and reclaim the division. GS

Caleb Williams faces one of the toughest divisions in football. Photograph: Nam Y Huh/AP

NFC North champion

Close your eyes and throw a dart at the NFL’s toughest division, and you have a 25% chance of being right. The Lions, Packers, and Vikings all have reason for hope, but if Bears head coach Ben Johnson can refine quarterback Caleb Williams, and Dennis Allen’s defense can improve over last season’s boom-or-bust results – they led the NFL in turnover differential, but ranked 23rd in points allowed – it’s Chicago’s time to shine. DF

Chicago may be the trendy pick and Green Bay dangerous floaters, but the Lions still have enough offensive firepower and strength along the line of scrimmage to hold them off in the NFL’s deepest division. BAG

The Lions were burned by injuries last year and still stayed in the playoff hunt almost to the end. They are positioned for a rebound, with more of their core available and one of the league’s easiest schedules – a chance to bank early wins while key pieces work their way back from early-season absences. AL

The Packers remain without Micah Parsons until at least Week 5 but a look at their first four opponents – the Vikings, Jets, Falcons and Buccaneers – points to a hot start. GS

NFC South champion

Mayfield was outstanding in the first half of the 2025 season before his own injuries, and the injuries of those around him, took their toll. The Buccaneers started the season 6-2 before falling off to 8-9. With better luck things should look quite a bit better in 2026. DF

The Buccaneers have the most settled quarterback situation, enough skill-position talent and a defense that’s just good enough. Carolina are the likeliest threat while neither Atlanta nor rebuilding New Orleans have enough to mount a serious challenge. BAG

There’s little incentive to go against the Buccaneers, the gold standard in the league’s most volatile division. AL

Off the back of late-season success in 2025, the Saints will be feeling good about their chances. If second-year quarterback Tyler Shough maintains his upward trajectory they should be confident. GS

NFC West champion

While there are reasons to question the ultimate validity of the Rams’ “all-in” approach that culminated with the return of Donald, there’s enough in the hypothetical to give Sean McVay’s team a slight edge over the Seahawks – if only because Seattle didn’t follow their Super Bowl win by radically stocking their defense as the Rams did. DF

There are legitimate durability questions around the aging Stafford and the returning Donald for the Rams. But it’s hard to imagine anyone challenging a roster tricked out with as much high-end talent as any NFL team in years. Anything short of a division title would qualify as a serious underachievement. BAG

The Rams. With apologies to the reigning Super Bowl champs, the moves GM Les Snead and Co made in the offseason to shore up their defense are eerily similar to the big swings they took in the 2021 season. And we all know how that turned out. AL

Donald and Garrett have five defensive player of the year awards between them and link up with former Super Bowl winners from the Chiefs in Watson and McDuffie. The Rams are stacked and then some. GS

AFC wildcard teams

Patriots, Jaguars, Chargers. DF

Patriots, Bengals, Chargers. BAG

Patriots, Ravens, Chiefs. AL

Chargers, Ravens, Jaguars. GS

NFC wildcard teams

Seahawks, Lions, Eagles. DF

Seahawks, Packers, Bears. BAG

Seahawks, 49ers, Cowboys. AL

Buccaneers, Lions, Seahawks. GS

AFC championship game

Bills over Broncos. DF

Broncos over Bills. BAG

Bengals over Jaguars. AL

Broncos over Bengals. GS

NFC championship game

Rams over Seahawks. DF

Rams over Eagles. BAG

Rams over Seahawks. AL

Rams over Cowboys. GS

Matthew Stafford is looking to win a second Super Bowl in LA. Photograph: Ariana Ruiz/PI/ZUMA Press Wire/Shutterstock

Your Super Bowl LXI winner will be …

Rams over Bills. The Rams’ “F Them Picks” philosophy served them well when they gave up a ton of draft capital for Stafford, Jalen Ramsey, and Von Miller, and they won the Super Bowl as a result. If the 2026 Rams find that their go-for-broke philosophy works once again with a radical reshuffling of their defense, it’s hard to bet against them, because the offense was already so on point. DF

Rams over Broncos. The Rams have spent the offseason putting together a star-studded roster unlike anything we’ve seen in years, adding Garrett, McDuffie and Watson before Donald decided he wasn’t finished after all. Denver’s elite defense is capable of making it ugly, but Sean McVay’s embarrassment of riches on both sides of the ball will ultimately prove too much. BAG

Bengals over Rams. Burrow avenges the biggest loss in his career, and it’s in no small part thanks to Brown and player personnel director Duke Tobin pulling the trigger one last time on a piece that helps neutralize the effects of the Garrett-Donald pocket collapse (an extra guard, a fullback – don’t hold me to specifics). The confusion over what to make of Zac Taylor as a Super Bowl-winning coach quickly gives way to the confusion over what to make of a championship parade festooned with tributes to the world’s weirdest chili. In other words, the renovations on ancient Paycor Stadium pay for themselves. AL

Broncos over Rams. Denver can argue they were a broken ankle away from the Super Bowl last season. Handily for the Broncos they come back with almost an identical roster this year. They kept starting running back JK Dobbins and brought in Waddle to help out Sutton. The Broncos already have the AFC’s best defense to go with a sublime offensive line and exciting weapons that can take down the Rams. GS