The US believes Russia is planning an armed 'provocation' against Poland to test NATO's resolve, according to reports

The US has reportedly warned Warsaw that Russia is planning an armed "provocation" against Poland to test NATO's resolve.

Washington has told Warsaw that such an attack could involve missiles and drones targeting Polish critical infrastructure or, in a more extreme scenario, Russian troops crossing the border into NATO territory, according to reports.

Sources close to Polish President Karol Nawrocki told Polish outlet Onet that the US said the alleged plot could take place within months and would be aimed at escalating tensions and forcing Western allies to reduce or withdraw military and financial support for Ukraine. Last month, allies collectively pledged $4bn in military aid to Ukraine.

The US "systematically informs Poland about ever-new Russian plans for a conventional attack on NATO's eastern flank, from which Poland is by no means excluded", a source close to Mr Nawrocki was quoted as saying.

Onet's security sources outlined scenarios including drone attacks on critical infrastructure or simulated airstrikes. One Polish intelligence source said the most extreme scenario would involve a "hybrid attack in the border region" by Russian or Belarusian troops.

The source said such an incident could be presented by Russia as a mistake, such as troops accidentally crossing into Polish territory due to a GPS failure.

Polish sources told Onet that Russia would hope Poland, rather than responding with force, would come under pressure from the US to negotiate with Moscow or Minsk. They said this could give Russia leverage to demand an end to Western support for Ukraine in exchange for a withdrawal from Polish territory.

An ambassador to one of Poland's NATO allies and a member of the Polish defence ministry also told Onet that they believed there was a serious risk of a provocation in Poland or one of the Baltic states.

A Baltic security source told The Telegraph that such plans were being discussed in Moscow. Such an attack could be launched either from Kaliningrad, Russia's Baltic enclave bordering Poland, or from Belarus, the source said.

It comes after the International Institute for Strategic Studies published a report on Thursday saying Russia had likely used shadow ships to launch drones over Europe as it monitored military sites and tested NATO air defences.

The report mapped 144 suspected drone sightings across Europe, including in NATO members Germany, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, the UK and Denmark, between 2024 and 2026.

The sightings peaked in late 2025, forcing the temporary closure of several European airports, including in Germany, Spain and Denmark.

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen described the incidents in her country as the "most serious attack on Danish critical infrastructure to date".