Key events

Over in New Zealand, India just ran down 199 in 13.2 overs to win a T20. If that makes Australian readers feel any better.

On that prior stat, I can add that there are also opening partnerships of 162 and 165 against Australia in matches when they’ve chosen to bowl first, but those were in the third innings, not the first. Atherton-Butcher in 1997, and Gavaskar-Chauhan in 1981.

Another great stat from Andy Zaltzman – this is what happens when he doesn’t have a BBC call to work for.

In a first innings when Australian teams have sent in an opponent, this is already the second-highest opening stand. Brian Luckhurst and Geoff Boycott put on 171 during the first WACA match in 1970, so today’s pair have 31 runs to go. Might knock that off in five overs after lunch.

Lunch - South Africa 140 without loss after being sent in

After being sent in! Gooooodness me. Pat Cummins will carry the can for this, but surely it was a coach-captain-senior-player decision. I can’t imagine that he just made the call himself walking to the toss. But it has gone horribly, horribly wrong.

Three things. One, conditions. Sunshine and nothing in the surface, no swing, no seam, no turn. Easy.

Two, Australia. They’ve bowled poorly, even in the conditions. A lot of short balls, a lot of width, a lot down the leg side. That has allowed so many of the shots we’ve seen.

Three, South Africa. Both players have made the most of the things going in their favour. Markram gave one chance against the run of play, Ackerman had a couple of false strokes, but they were good enough to really go after what they could go after, and middled a lot of deliveries.

Marques Ackerman making hay. Photograph: Halden Krog/AP

27th over: South Africa 140-0 (Markram 56, Ackerman 82) Cummins to close it out before the break, and Markram drops and dashes a single. Ackerman does the same, not going to do anything silly at this stage of the session. Last ball, Markram edges through a vacant slip for four, and that puts a very appropriate full stop on an absolute disaster of a session for Australia. The South African leave the field walking on air.

Half century! Markram 50 from 81 balls

26th over: South Africa 134-0 (Markram 51, Ackerman 81) Commentary is talking about an Ackerman hundred before lunch, but Markram is taking the strike and charging to fifty instead. He cuts Lyon for four, then produces that back-foot punch again for another. He averages fifty-plus against Australia, and here he is again. Then he pinches the strike!

25th over: South Africa 125-0 (Markram 42, Ackerman 81) The smashathon continues! Lunch not far away, and Starc still bowling indifferently, short and wide and slashed away by Ackerman. Next ball, arrows in at the pads, and Ackerman is ready for that! Cleans it out over midwicket for four more. Third ball? Same result, nothing wrong with the deliver this time, just outside the off stump, but Ackerman trusts the bowler’s pace, opens the face, and guides it over the slips. Again, shots you can’t play elsewhere, but we haven’t seen a single ball move laterally off the surface.

Fourth ball? Four more! Uppercut again, this time much squarer. The last one went over the gap between first and second slip, this one over gully, but Ackerman is trusting his ability to guide the ball anywhere.

Finally, from the fifth ball, he has to defend. Drops the ball at his feet. And Markram is still aware enough to pinch the single. Then keeps strike. 18 from the over.

I’m having flashbacks to Shikhar Dhawan on debut against Australia. A ton off… was it 89 balls? Someone can look that up. Ackerman isn’t quite on debut, but the next best thing.

24th over: South Africa 107-0 (Markram 41, Ackerman 64) Lyon continuing, and the singles flow freely. Everyone is asking about bowling first. Surely, having brought your spinner back and having kept your left-armer to make the footmarks outside the right-hander’s off stump, you would want to give him the chance to bowl last, not to be operating before lunch?

Gervase Greene emails in. “Seeing Baz Boland as drinks waiter, again, is a bit confronting. I do get why he was surplus to the situation in this case - it looking like a solid batting wicket and all that. But boy does that then beg the question ‘why the hell did we send them in...?’ Only a cynic might suggest we needed another 24 hours to sort out our batting order. (24 weeks might be better…)”

23rd over: South Africa 103-0 (Markram 40, Ackerman 62) This is a team falling apart in real time. Travis Head drops Markram, one of the easiest catches you will ever see at Test level. Just wasn’t paying attention.

Markram tries to drive another length ball, misreads the bounce, gets it up near the splice. The ball doesn’t loop up, it goes relatively flat but gently and slowly to cover, where Head is placed. He doesn’t seem to see it, because he jumps as the ball reaches him, as if thinking that it has been smashed. It hasn’t, but Head with both feet off the ground and his hands all over the place is in no position to hold it, and instead parries it away. Can’t get it on the rebound either. The body language there strongly suggests that he’d drifted off, and was surprised to see a ball coming at him.

22nd over: South Africa 102-0 (Markram 39, Ackerman 62) Markram pulls, and for a second Cummins thinks that he’s in the game, the uncontrolled top edge swirling away, but there’s a big gap behind square with the possible catcher set much finer, and the ball lands safely for a run. Markram didn’t know where it went either. But no such ambiguity around Ackerman’s shot, as he follows up with another fine hook for six! Every time he plays the short ball, it goes fine, and this one is almost over the keeper as he just gets a touch on it, Cummins’ pace supplying the momentum. Last ball of the over? On the hip, glanced for four.

The ton is up in the 23rd over. Australia are being flayed.

Half century! Ackerman 50 from 62 balls

21st over: South Africa 90-0 (Markram 38, Ackerman 51) Short, pulled, fine, single, that’s the Ackerman formula today, and he repeats it to raise his fifty. Showed some good signs through a difficult evening of batting in Gqeberha, then got himself out the next morning. Today he’s been given a much easier forum in which to show his skills.

Markram on strike, then, and he utterly flays Hazlewood! That is a shot of supreme confidence, and total dominance. A huge stride outside the off stump, a ball on a Hazlewood length heading towards the top of its bounce, and Markram with an angled bat smokes that ball, on the up. You couldn’t really call it a cover drive, with the bat so far from body at the point of contact. Imagine one of those Brendon McCullum flat-bats over cover, but one designed by a fine filigree jeweller. Astonishing.

Never Gonna Give You Up comes onto the PA. Australia have been Rickrolled today.

Marques Ackerman soaks up the acclaim for his half-century. Photograph: Halden Krog/AP

20th over: South Africa 83-0 (Markram 33, Ackerman 49) Cummins to Ackerman around the wicket, trying a couple of shorties, but the second of those doesn’t get up, and Ackerman pulls it comfortably to fine leg for one.

19th over: South Africa 82-0 (Markram 33, Ackerman 48) A maiden over! What is this sorcery! Not because Hazlewood bowled anything particularly unplayable, but I would guess more than Markram has assessed their incredible early position and wants to make sure he stabilises it.

Matthew Doherty emails succinctly. “Edgbaston 2005, England 409 all out, 80 overs first day.”

That does rather spring to mind, doesn’t it? Likewise, Australia 364 for 2 in Brisbane, 2002.

18th over: South Africa 82-0 (Markram 33, Ackerman 48) Reverse sweep from Ackerman! He’s flying now. Takes a chance to disrupt Lyon, who is bowling around the wicket to the left-hander. Lyon is in the team for experience and guile, and needs to tap into those qualities. Ackerman takes him through the leg side for a couple more runs, then punches in front of point for four!

This. Is. A. Pasting.

Going at 4.5 an over through the first session of the Test, after being asked to bat.

17th over: South Africa 72-0 (Markram 33, Ackerman 38) Finally Hazlewood manages to apply the brakes for a couple of minutes. A dinky little pull shot from Ackerman gets a run to fine leg, with some risk. Even in a good over, Hazlewood’s line strays there. One other single to Markram.

16th over: South Africa 70-0 (Markram 32, Ackerman 37) There’s the one that Ackerman was looking for! He’s been wanting a piece of Lyon every ball he’s faced, but has been largely holding himself back. Finally he gets on the dancefloor and sends Lyon out of the ground, leg side slog from the lefty.

15th over: South Africa 63-0 (Markram 31, Ackerman 31) Hazlewood to continue, and he gets belted! We were told that Ackerman was a dasher at domestic level, and an unusual choice to open, but it’s working here. A short ball from Hazlewood is slashed over the cordon, then a length ball is guided away through the cordon along the ground. This is a pasting.

14th over: South Africa 53-0 (Markram 31, Ackerman 21) Markram gives up strike facing the first ball from Cummins, but Ackerman immediately gives it back. Still, nothing more ambitious from Markram this over. He’s not been sucked into going too hard with the momentum his way. Drinks.

13th over: South Africa 51-0 (Markram 30, Ackerman 20) Two runs from Lyon’s over, Ackerman knocking the ball through point, but otherwise Ackerman doesn’t look entirely confident in his method against Lyon.

12th over: South Africa 49-0 (Markram 30, Ackerman 18) Markram just keeps going. Cummins tries bumping him again, Markram dispatches the short ball for four. This is just a dominant early performance.

11th over: South Africa 43-0 (Markram 24, Ackerman 18) It’s Nathan Lyon in the 11th over! That alone tells you that things are not going well for Australia. His comeback over is a decent one, lots of defence from Ackerman, then an ill-judged jump out of his crease for a hoy at the ball, skewed away leg side for a single. Markram scores a more controlled one, down the ground.

10th over: South Africa 41-0 (Markram 23, Ackerman 17) This tells you how good this pitch is to bat on. Some width from Cummins, a bit short, but Markram would have been cautious about throwing the bat at Gqeberha where the ball was moving around. Here, angled bat, no hesitation, seared for four.

9th over: South Africa 31-0 (Markram 19, Ackerman 16) This is rapidly turning into one of the worst bowl-first decisions ever. So simple for Markram to get onto the front foot and drive that full Starc delivery through cover for four. The Australians of course have the quality to turn things around, but right now, South Africa are right on top.

8th over: South Africa 31-0 (Markram 15, Ackerman 15) Oh, my word. The symbolism of this sequence is immense. Cummins brings himself on to bowl. He’s the captain, he’s made the call at the toss, he’s the enforcer when things are getting away from Australia. He’s the one who has to make a statement in his first spell. He bowls a few balls, then drops in his bouncer, and Markram smashes him for six.

Clean as a whistle, over midwicket. That’s huge both literally and metaphorically.

This is perhaps the first recorded link between Andy Zaltzman and Tupac Shakur, but the former has just sent me an email headed Ch-ch-ch-changes!

Buckle up for some incredible stats on Australia’s moves.

“Hi Geoff, hope all is well. You look like the kind of person who would like some pure, unadulterated information about regarding Australia’s four changes.

If my magic Team Changes spreadsheet is to be believed (and I am almost 101% certain that it is), this is the first time Australia have made four or more changes during a series (i.e. excluding first Tests) since the 4^th Test in Johannesburg in 2017-18. That was the game after S***P****G***. Smith, Warner and Bancroft, plus Starc, were replaced by Burns, Renshaw, Handscomb and Sayers.

This current Test is only the eighth time Australia have made four or more changes during a series away from home. They also did so twice in India in 2012-13, when four players were naughty-stepped for the 3^rd Test due to the Homework Shemozzle (Watson, Wade and Pattinson, who had played the 2nd Test, plus Khawaja who was in the squad but not playing; Maxwell was also dropped from the XI). The four dropped players, plus Mitchell Johnson, came back into the XI for the 4th Test.

So the current match is the first time Australia have made four or more changes during an away series without disciplinary intervention since 1994-95, when for the 3rd Test v Pakistan in Lahore, Langer, Emery, May and McGrath replaced S. Waugh, Healy, Fleming and Angel.

Prior to that, the only times Australia have made 4+ changes during an away series were:

- the 4th Test in West Indies in 1983-84 (Jones, Woolley, Maguire, Rackemann in for Wood, S. Smith (different one), Hogg and Alderman), and

- twice in India in 1956-57, when Rutherford, Davidson, Maddocks and Wilson replaced MacDonald, Craig, Langley and Ian Johnson for the second Test, and those changes were reversed for the third Test. (Unusually for that era, those Tests were played back-to-back.)

The third Test in India in 1956-57 was the only time Australia have won an away Test during a series having made four or more changes.

Here endeth the stat.

7th over: South Africa 24-0 (Markram 9, Ackerman 14) Lyon now at leg slip, but Ackerman pulls wide of him! Gloved that shot, and it could easily have looped up to the catcher, but instead goes a couple of metres wide of him, too much ground to make up.

Still, choose to bowl first, and by the seventh over you’re trying to take your wickets with a bouncer ploy? It’s not encouraging for the tourists.

6th over: South Africa 23-0 (Markram 9, Ackerman 13) Markram punches to point again, but Lyon is stationed right on the white line there and gets in the way. Eventually a leg bye, then a single, from Hazlewood.

“Given that Cam Green can’t bowl and you have Head, Renshaw and Connolly, this is the test you go in with four seamers,” writes Kevin Wilson. Maybe. There have been some pretty good performances by spinners though on this ground.

5th over: South Africa 21-0 (Markram 9, Ackerman 12) Flushed him! Yowch. Starc belts Markram, straight out. Around the wicket, bowls a body-length ball clocked at 149 kph, and that did look quick as well, unlike some of the high readings in the second Test. In at the body and Markram doesn’t have time to do anything but flinch and hope it doesn’t hurt him too badly. It smashes the little wrist guard, but will still have done some damage. Deflects for a leg bye. Ackerman, though, middles his next shot, full on his pads and taken through square.

4th over: South Africa 15-0 (Markram 8, Ackerman 7) Hazlewood full again, inside edge again, this one a danger of being played back onto Ackerman’s stumps. He gets going with a leg glance though, four, then drives a single/.

“Thanks for the coverage again!” writes George van Zijl. “Based on form the Aussies could probably pick Lyon as spinner and include Boland as a batsman. He batted in the top order in both innings last test and did better than most. How many times has a batting pair started two days in a row after a full day’s play? I guess the best bet is when no wickets fall, which only has occurred once in my cricket following days (SA vs Aus at the Wanderers in I think 1996). The Head-Boland partnership should be less unique as bowling a team out and having them follow-on happens more readily than a pair carrying their bats for a full day. Cant wait for this Test.”

The full-day batting partnership has quite a lot of precedents. Top of my head, Laxman and Dravid in 2001, Taylor and Marsh in 1989, Sangakkara and Jayawardene in the record partnership against your lot, Lara and Jimmy Adams in Kingston. You’re thinking of Steve Waugh and Greg Blewett in 1997. I reckon there would be fewer examples with a team following on, hard to track those without doing it manually though, and I’m a bit busy right now. Anyone free?

3rd over: South Africa 10-0 (Markram 8, Ackerman 2) Starc gets Markram hopping and playing from the first ball of the over, but Markram picks off the second, a lovely clip off a leg stump line from a ball that is about hip height, not glanced fine but struck more sweetly square of the wicket. Four.

Goes again! The sort of shot that has had him in trouble this series, and other players, punching square off the back foot, riding the bounce of a shorter ball to flash it through point, but this time it works perfectly. On a nice sunny morning, is this a batting paradise?

2nd over: South Africa 2-0 (Markram 0, Ackerman 2) Hazlewood, by contrast, is on the money immediately. Ackerman has to play at almost everything, and doesn’t look comfortable with the bounce. Wears one on the gloves, squeezes a couple of balls away off the inside edge without control. Survives, though, and picks up two in advertent runs from one of those defensive shots.

1st over: South Africa 0-0 (Markram 0, Ackerman 0) Thus begins the day via Mitchell Starc. He was Australia’s champion during the recent Ashes series, then hasn’t had a big influence in the two Tests here so far. Three wickets each during the Durban and Gqeberha matches, produced some good deliveries but had some radar issues.

His first over here doesn’t correct that, with Markram able to leave the first five balls of the Test.

So that’s a lot of changes in between preamble speculation and the start of play. Email me your thoughts. Let’s get into it.

The two teams are on the field at Newlands for the national anthems with first ball only a few minutes away.

If you missed it, last week Barney Ronay gave his view of Temba Bavuma’s masterwork.

Bavuma has been a transformative Test captain, with 12 wins in 14 matches, four hundreds, a world championship mace, all stretched over three broken years. But he is still always, always chasing legitimacy and affirmation, in a way that is unique to cricket, but also unique to this man in this role in this sporting nation. First black middle order batsman. First black captain. How is this going to fall? How strong is that ice underfoot?

Among the Australia’s four changes for this Test, there’s still no proven replacement opener for Usman Khawaja, who has been on media street lately with his book coming out to coincide with an Australian Story episode.

South Africa XI

Aiden Markram, Marques Ackerman, David Bedingham, Temba Bavuma (capt), Matthew Breetzke, Ryan Rickelton (wk), Wiaan Mulder, Marco Jansen, Simon Harmer, Gerald Coetzee, Kagiso Rabada.

The Proteas are forced to make one change and have no reason to swing any more after their thumping victory by an innings and 31 runs in the second Test. Gerald Coetzee replaces the injured Anrich Nortje.

Australia XI

Travis Head, Matt Renshaw, Marnus Labuschagne, Cameron Green, Josh Inglis, Alex Carey (wk), Cooper Connolly, Pat Cummins (capt), Mitchell Starc, Nathan Lyon, Josh Hazlewood.

Matt Renshaw moves to the top of the order to partner Travis Head with Cameron Green slated to come in at No 4. Cooper Connolly expected to bat after Alex Carey.

Pat Cummins explains the four selection changes and how close Steve Smith was to playing on Australia’s first Test at Newlands since 2018.

We’re going to have a bowl, feel like there’s little of moisture in the wicket today.

[Steve Smith] had another little practice this morning but wasn’t happy with how his neck was feeling. We’ve got some other guys really placed. They’ve been working hard the last couple of weeks, a couple have had injuries, they’re coming back now

Very hard [to leave out Boland]. He’s such a class player. As it was hard to leave out Nathan Lyon last week, so a good problem to have.

Australia win the toss and elect to bowl

Pat Cummins wins the toss and Australia will bowl first against South Africa at Newlands in Cape Town.

Steve Smith to miss third Test

Steve Smith has failed a fitness test and with miss the series decider against South Africa in Newlands, as Australia have been forced into a huge change and made a couple more selection calls based on form and fitness. Josh Inglis comes in for the former Australia captain.

Cooper Connolly will play his second Test in place of Beau Webster, while Australia also turn to Nathan Lyon with Scott Boland the unlucky pace bowler to miss out. Cameron Green returns after recovering from an abdominal strain as the Nic Maddinson experiment comes to an end.

Australia are expected to make at least a couple of changes. Martin Pegan looked closer at who might be on their way in – and out – of the team.

The Australian selectors have shown in South Africa they are prepared to change a winning formula with the ball, while they have long been reluctant to cut ties with proven performers with the bat. But the first innings capitulation as Australia were all out for 99 in Gqeberha could force their hand to make a tough call or two – or perhaps more – as a selection storm brews before the series decider in Cape Town.

This was the Australian camp’s attitude yesterday as to whether Smith would be passed fit.

The weather! Always worth checking in this game. Thankfully the forecast suggests that we’ll have less annoyance with rain and light than in the first two Tests, that both got dragged out to five days when better conditions might have had them wrapped up in three or four.

For Cape Town, the weather is set fair, with sunny days and just some scattered cloud expected. Cool temperatures given the season, low 20s will be the max. Ideal for the players.

Preamble

One, two, three. That’s as many Tests as we’re going to get in this series, and today begins the third and final. It’s the one that we’ve all been waiting for: the return to Cape Town, the scene of all that went wrong for Australia in 2018, and thus the location with so much riding on it should they put on a performance that would create some fresher and better memories.

That, though, would require a serious turnaround in form and fortune, given the way South Africa slowly stomped them last week in Gqeberha. Australia’s batting is the weak point, given their win in Durban was largely carried on the capacious shell of The Turtle, Matthew Renshaw, while their loss the following week was down to their insipid 99 all out in their first attempt with the bat.

We probably already know what the teams will be, pending any late injuries or changes of heart, with minimal changes likely. One batting change for Australia will create a shuffle: Cameron Green back into the side from injury means Nic Maddinson out on lack of runs, with Matt Renshaw moving up to open. Marnus Labuschagne and Beau Webster likely stay put. The other change will be Nathan Lyon in for Scott Boland. Cue debate. There’s some chance Steve Smith will miss with his neck injury, in which case Josh Inglis would likely come in rather than Maddinson shifting down.

As for South Africa, the injured Anrich Nortje being replaced by fellow fast man Gerald Coetzee is likely the only change, with Temba Bavuma hoping to continue his excellent record as leader, both in terms of wins and of runs.

Lots going on. Let’s start our walk.