SVT projection: centre-left opposition bloc leads by one seat

Drama.

The SVT’s much-awaited projection at 9.45pm local time, using the actual results from 10% of districts in their model, shows the two blocs effectively tied, with the opposition leading by just ONE SEAT in the new parliament.

Swedish public broadcaster SVT’s revised projection at 2145 local time showing near tie between two main blocs in the general election in Sweden Photograph: STV

Here are the revised figures:

Social Democratic Party (S) 27.6%
Moderates (M) 20.0%
Sweden Democrats (SD) 17.5%
Left Party (V) 8.2%
Centre Party (C) 7.1%
Christian Democrats (KD) 6.3%
Green Party (MP) 6.2%
Liberals (L) 5.5%

If confirmed, it would give a truly extraordinary result: the opposition bloc at 175 seats in the new parliament, and the incumbent government at 174.

It’s going to be a long night.

Key events

With 57% of votes now counted, the opposition bloc leads by 0.3pp, 46.2% to 45.9% – and still 175 to 174 when it comes to seats.

The latest figures are as follows:

Social Democratic Party (S) 27.6%
Moderates (M) 19.8%
Sweden Democrats (SD) 17.7%
Left Party (V) 8.2%
Centre Party (C) 7.2%
Green Party (MP) 6.3%
Christian Democrats (KD) 6.2.%
Liberals (L) 5.4%

0.1pp difference between two bloc, SVT projection shows

The SVT projection shows 49.3% of the vote share going to the opposition bloc, with 49.2% for the governing bloc.

A difference of 0.1pp.

We are literally talking about the slimmest of margins here.

Nicholas Aylott of the Södertörn University writes in to comment on the new projected result for Kristersson’s Moderates.

“For the second consecutive election, the party of the PM looks set to have increased its vote, while allies lost out. Not what we usually expect.”

The Moderates saw 19.1% of the vote share in 2022; the latest SVT projection has them at 20.0%.

Obviously, the SVT’s projection will keep being revised as more votes get counted, so expect more changes and dramas tonight.

This is not the final result, and things may – and no doubt will – change again.

Projection shows Kristersson's Moderates broaden their advantage over far-right Sweden Democrats - snap analysis

It’s worth noting the Moderates gaining a lot in the SVT’s projection, moving up from 18.1% to 20.0%, well ahead of the far-right Sweden Democrats in third, at 17.5%.

I hate to be the “I told you so” guy, but… I told you so.

Exit polls in Sweden have, erm, a history (19:58, 20:33).

Get some snacks, we are in for a long night.

SVT projection: centre-left opposition bloc leads by one seat

Drama.

The SVT’s much-awaited projection at 9.45pm local time, using the actual results from 10% of districts in their model, shows the two blocs effectively tied, with the opposition leading by just ONE SEAT in the new parliament.

Swedish public broadcaster SVT’s revised projection at 2145 local time showing near tie between two main blocs in the general election in Sweden Photograph: STV

Here are the revised figures:

Social Democratic Party (S) 27.6%
Moderates (M) 20.0%
Sweden Democrats (SD) 17.5%
Left Party (V) 8.2%
Centre Party (C) 7.1%
Christian Democrats (KD) 6.3%
Green Party (MP) 6.2%
Liberals (L) 5.5%

If confirmed, it would give a truly extraordinary result: the opposition bloc at 175 seats in the new parliament, and the incumbent government at 174.

It’s going to be a long night.

Ready for some drama?

The SVT’s first projection is here, and… gosh.

Vote count under way in Sweden - in pictures

Voting envelopes are opened as the counting of votes takes place at the polling station at Kockums Fritid in Malmö. Photograph: Johan Nilsson/TT NEWS AGENCY/AFP/Getty Images

Voting envelopes are opened as the counting of votes takes place in Sweden. Photograph: Johan Nilsson/TT NEWS AGENCY/AFP/Getty Images

Oh, turns out they need a bit more time.

Their numbers have slightly changed, but it’s based on very partial results, and they say they need a bit more to properly run their model.

So the wait continues.

The SVT superprojection is coming any moment now.

Ready?

A third of voters made up their mind last week, poll says

Digging into SVT/Valu poll data, as many as 64% of the people who voted for the Liberal party only decided to do so in the last week.

In sharp contrast, the equivalent number for the far-right Sweden Democrats stands at mere 18%.

Overall, one in three voters only made their mind up this week, the poll says.

SVT exit poll

Here’s the SVT/Valu exit poll in a visual form.

The numbers show the projected vote share.