Donald Trump continues to set the political agenda in both the US and the world, but his dominance is being challenged more than ever before. He ‘wins’ more often than he loses, but he has been unable to implement some of his favored policies. These setbacks are not a temporary trend, governing will become more challenging as Congress has begun to push back against some of his legally questionable initiatives, while Washington’s inability to impose its will on Iran despite major aerial assaults has revealed the limits of US military power. International Humanitarian Law, the Law of Armed conflict as well as various Geneva conventions ensure that it is no longer permissible in general Curtis LeMay’s words to bomb a country “back to the stone age.” Although Trump occasionally threatens to “obliterate” Iran, the threats are rhetorical. Unlike Israel’s Prime minister Bibi Netanyahu or his Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Trump takes little pleasure in overseeing killings or the destruction of civilian infrastructure, although he will occasionally authorize it.

Despite being unable to defend itself from American attacks and the serious damage they inflict on its economy, Iran’s government remains defiant, attacking US client states in the Persian Gulf and continuing to disrupt ship traffic in the vital Strait of Hormuz through which roughly 20% of global oil consumption is transported. Since the Strait is the world's single most important oil chokepoint, closing it inevitably leads to a surge in oil and gas prices, leading to economic dislocation and anger among Western, in particular US consumers. The on-again, off-again conflict has made Iran an important factor in geopolitics, a result that Trump loathes but one that he cannot alter unilaterally. 

During the 2024 election campaign Trump lambasted president Joe Biden for the growing affordability crisis, promising to ensure rapid economic growth and lower prices, a dawning of a new age of growth and greatness. Easier said than done. Inflation has been more persistent than many expected, driven by higher energy prices which are expected to remain elevated through most of 2027. Trump’s intention to increase manufacturing capacity by using tariffs and various incentives to cajole foreign countries to massively invest in new plants in the US has not led to substantial foreign investment. Promises and commitments have been made, but few new plants are being built, in part because the US labor force is not sufficiently trained to operate highly sophisticated factories. 

Experience has shown that Trump’s bullying and threats elicit promises rather than firm commitments and actual construction. As his inability to compel compliance becomes more evident, fewer nations and corporations will be willing to bend the knee, even if just for show. US miliary prowess will remain unchallenged, but its efficacy to cause change is likely to decrease as countries internalize the lessons of Iranian intransigence, namely that super-powers can be successfully resisted by a country willing to absorb massive destruction. Iran did not lose, but it also did not win for it will take a decade and hundreds of billions to rebuild what has been destroyed.

Success has not crowned Trump’s economic agenda. Although he has repeatedly described “tariff” as the “most beautiful word” in the English language and imposed a tariff regime on almost all of America’s trading partners, some but not all of the tariffs have been ruled unconstitutional, diminishing Trump’s proclivity to impose them. Under current conditions they will not generate the income that Trump believed that they would. 

Although it is too early to confidently predict the mid-term elections results, the Democratic party has grounds for optimism. Historically the president's party almost always loses House seats in midterm elections, Republicans have only a very narrow majority, Trump’s popularity has fallen sharply, the economy is perceived to be under-performing, so the probability that the Democrats will win the House is substantial. Different polls show different results, but a compilation of all the polls suggest that the Democrats have a 60 percent.

Sentiments might still change, but it is hard to conceive of the circumstances that would cause independents and wavering voters to back the Republicans. The economy, usually the most important issue in midterm election, is in the doldrums and will remain so at least until November.

 America’s fascination with Trump, its willingness to tolerate his peccadillos has been greatly diminished. If the Democrats win the House as is likely, Trump’s last two years in office will be the most challenging of the current term.