Tractor trailers wait in line at the Otay Mesa Port of Entry, on the US-Mexico border. Photo by Carlos Moreno /Photographer: Carlos Moreno/Bloo

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(Bloomberg) — A countdown to the expiry of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement is set to begin as officials launch a review of the sweeping trade deal that President Donald Trump signed during his first term.

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The USMCA entered into force six years ago and is the architecture underpinning almost $2 trillion in annual trade among the three countries. It covers everything from Mexican steel to Canadian milk — an extensive rulebook governing auto manufacturing, investor protections, intellectual property rights, digital services and more.

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But it also has a ticking clock. Unlike the North American Free Trade Agreement which preceded it, USMCA includes a provision for the three countries to talk about renewal of the deal, starting this year. Unless it’s reauthorized — with or without changes — it would expire in 2036.

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Video: America’s Farmers Need USMCA More Than Ever

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While Mexico and Canada both want to keep USMCA broadly the way it is, Trump appears ready to use the moment as leverage. So US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, Mexican Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard and Canadian cabinet minister Dominic LeBlanc are expected to meet virtually Wednesday morning, officially starting the mandatory review. They’ll update the public on the process later.

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In 2020, Trump hailed USMCA as “the largest, fairest, most balanced, and modern trade agreement ever achieved,” forming a partnership “against the world.” But through the pandemic and a US trade war with China, which boosted the urgency for supply-chain resilience and independence, his warm regard for it has since gone cold.

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Economists, analysts and policymakers believe that months, perhaps years, of haggling lie ahead to try to negotiate solutions to frictions in a trading bloc of more than 500 million people. 

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“I wouldn’t expect any drama tomorrow,” Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said Tuesday, adding: “I’m not looking for my pen.”

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Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said Tuesday that the aim is to publish a joint statement from all three nations, but otherwise the countries will each release their own. 

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The statement “will be very important,” she said. “The treaty benefits all three countries.”

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Sheinbaum said she’s already signed a letter calling for the treaty to be renewed, as laid out in the text of the agreement, for 16 years. LeBlanc has done the same on behalf of Canada.

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Non-renewal sets up a process of annual check-ins. At any of these, a new deal could be reached or the process itself could be altered. Parties also have the more radical option to exit the deal with six months’ notice. Trump has recently toyed with that idea. 

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“I would rather leave it unsigned, I’d rather have it terminated,” he said in June, mentioning two distinct options. “I would rather not have the USMCA,” he continued. “I would rather not have the agreement, but I may sign it.”

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Trump’s non-committal approach creates uncertainty about one of the world’s largest trading blocs, where industrial giants ranging from Airbus SE to Nissan Motor Co. make their products. That lack of clarity means a drag on confidence and investment across the continent, with bigger costs for Canada and Mexico, according to Oxford Economics.