The H-1B visa programme, which is under scrutiny amid several immigration policy changes, was designed to serve the interests of the US economy, rather than those of India or Brazil

The Democratic party’s victory in the US mid-term elections is unlikely to alter the broader technology spending cycle or significantly ease immigration-related challenges for Indian IT companies. However, it could bring greater regulatory scrutiny of AI investments and more oversight of visa policies, say experts.

Following the mid-term elections, Democrats have secured control of both chambers of the US Congress, crossing the 218-seat threshold required for a majority in the House of Representatives and winning a majority in the Senate. However, Trump remains President, retaining executive powers over key policy areas, including trade and immigration.

However, experts note that the election outcome is unlikely to materially alter the larger technology investment cycle in the US. “Democrats are pro-regulation, so the AI data centre bill could face regulatory scrutiny. If capex in this area is scaled back, companies will still need to prioritise profitability. Jobs related to training AI and frontier models could consequently move at a faster pace to regions such as Eastern Europe, India and Latin America. Broad-based investment in AI in the US will continue, given that it is a capitalist economy. However, issues that had earlier taken a back seat, including ESG considerations, could come back into focus,” Nitin Kumar, Founder of The F* Word, a fashion tech company based out of Florida, said.

He expects IT outsourcing to continue, with a modest uptick in cost-sensitive work. AI capabilities are evolving rapidly, with models improving within weeks while costs continue to decline. This would create uncertainty until the technology and its economics stabilised. He added that Democratic-led regulation would likely focus on issues such as security, privacy, fairness and transparency, given the unpredictable nature of AI.

According to Gaurav Vasu, CEO and Founder of UnearthInsight, enterprise technology spending is already shifting towards AI applications, AI-native platforms and intelligent automation, driven by fundamental business priorities around productivity, efficiency and competitiveness.

“These underlying drivers are unlikely to change with a political shift. However, a Democrat-led policy approach could potentially bring tighter regulations or slow the pace of investments in AI infrastructure and data centres. Whether this translates into any meaningful change in enterprise technology spending and demand for IT services remains to be seen,” he echoed.

Moreover, Indian IT has limited exposure to the US public sector, with government contracts accounting for a 1-2 per cent share of their overall business. Therefore, any policy changes or shifts in public sector spending following the elections may not have a material direct impact on the industry.

Kumar highlighted that the H-1B visa programme, which is under scrutiny amid several immigration policy changes, was designed to serve the interests of the US economy, rather than those of India or Brazil.

“The premise was a shortfall of skilled talent in the US, which is no longer the case because, in the next 10 years, the skills required are different from what was required in the last decade. Critical gaps will still be filled by external people. But there will be some high-end hiring here,” he said.

Ritika Gupta, CEO and Global Education Mentor, Aaera, echoed this, adding that immigration policy is influenced by factors including presidential orders, legislative initiatives, approvals from the Department of Homeland Security and the practices of USCIS. “Even if the political landscape changes, immigration laws will not undergo immediate changes,” she noted.

Visa programmes

The Republican defeat could increase congressional scrutiny of the administration’s immigration policies and pave the way for more stable visa programmes. However, a change in congressional composition does not necessarily mean easier H-1B access for Indian applicants. The debate will continue to centre on whether companies use the programme to address genuine skill shortages or cut labour costs, with proposals for higher salary thresholds, stricter employer checks and changes to visa selection processes likely to remain in focus.

“The stability of policies may help IT firms in India with faster planning and implementation for international assignments. But firms may not return to over-reliance on the H-1B visa, even if the US immigration process becomes more predictable. The IT sector has made a structural transition towards local hiring, use of offshore centres and nearshore operations,” she added.

Among the seven biggest IT firms in India, H-1B employment approvals totalled 4,573 in the financial year 2025, a decrease of about 37 per cent compared to 2024 and 70 per cent compared to 2015. Companies have been investing in local hiring, creating delivery centres and enhancing resources in their homeland to minimize immigration costs and reduce uncertainty.

Kumar concluded that the business case for H-1B hiring would remain in question as the US job market has softened, with companies like Microsoft and Oracle laying off employees. Even with Democrats taking control of Congress in January, immigration policy may not be an immediate priority, given concerns around unemployment, AI-led job displacement, the Iran conflict and the economy. Any policy changes could take until the second or third quarter to materialise.

He added that a change in congressional control would not alter the underlying economic and labour-market dynamics, including demand for skilled workers and the infrastructure requirements of data centres. While Trump’s policy decisions could face greater constraints, he would retain executive powers.

Published on November 4, 2026