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White House betting controversy, Kalshi legal fight, 44 AGs oppose CFTC proposal, today in prediction market news LIVE

1 week ago 6

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Today in prediction market news, we’re following the biggest developments shaping the industry, including fresh legal setbacks for Kalshi in its fight with New York regulators, a White House official’s response to allegations involving prediction market bets tied to President Trump, and a coordinated push by 44 state attorneys general urging the CFTC to reject proposed prediction market rules.

We’ll also cover Minnesota’s latest actions on prediction markets, including a new executive order on insider betting and court developments clarifying the state’s enforcement authority, as well as ProphetX’s $35 million funding round, the launch of a prediction market-focused media company, regulatory updates, and other breaking prediction market news throughout the day.

Live Updated 22 hours ago

States already planning their next fight with the CFTC

suswati suswati 12:35 pm

The CFTC hasn't even finalized its sports event contract rules, and lawyers are already warming up for the sequel. Gaming attorney Daniel Wallach highlighted language from New York's court filing suggesting states are prepared to challenge any final rule in federal court, arguing the agency has exceeded its statutory authority and acted "arbitrarily and capriciously" under the Administrative Procedure Act. Translation: even if the CFTC gets its rule over the finish line, don't expect anyone to start celebrating just yet. 

The @NewYorkStateAG signals that the States will be challenging the CFTC's rulemaking on sports-event contracts (once finalized) in federal court as a violation of the APA because the CFTC is acting arbitrarily and capriciously and in excess of the statutory authority. https://t.co/hJFEZ0cVUR

— Daniel Wallach (@WALLACHLEGAL) July 29, 2026

Underdog appears to be building prediction market parlays

suswati suswati 11:52 am

A newly spotted self-certification filing by Aristotle Exchange (Underdog's CFTC-regulated exchange) appears to describe a contract that pays out only if all of several previously certified event contracts occur—in other words, something that looks remarkably like a parlay. The filing doesn't use the word "parlay," but the structure is hard to miss.

looks like Underdog self-certified parlays pic.twitter.com/8wohJ4WIBV

— Dustin Gouker (@DustinGouker) July 29, 2026

The footnote that could keep Kalshi's Minnesota headache alive

suswati suswati 11:49 am
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