Economy: Argentina

Argentina’s disinflation has stalled on the last, hardest stretch: the monthly number refuses to fall below 2%, and the president’s signature promise is slipping a full year to the right.

The Casa Rosada, where Milei staked his credibility on ending inflation. (Photo: Wikimedia Commons)

The Streak Broke at 2.1%

The July consumer price index came in at 2.1% month-on-month, the INDEC reported on August 13, up two-tenths from June’s 1.9%. It is a small move with outsized symbolism: the monthly path this year — 2.9% in January, 2.9% in February, 3.4% in March, 2.6% in April, 2.1% in May, 1.9% in June — had been a clean disinflation story until July interrupted it.

The cumulative figures frame the political problem. Prices are up 19.3% in the first seven months of 2026 and 33.8% against July 2025.

Milei had told voters the monthly index would start with a zero by August — the official forecast survey now shows no such month anywhere on the horizon.

Seasonals Did the Damage

The composition softens the headline. Core inflation — the measure central bankers watch — ran at 1.8%, below the general index, while seasonal prices surged 4.5% on winter-holiday items: recreation and culture rose 5%, the month’s biggest division, driven by tourism packages and accommodation.

Regulated prices added 2.1%, food rose 2.0%, and clothing actually fell 1.3%.

Buenos Aires City, often a leading indicator, printed 2.9% for July on services and tourism costs — a warning that August’s national number may not fall back quickly even if July’s spike proves seasonal.

The Obelisco in Buenos Aires — ground zero of Argentina’s price debate. (Photo: Wikimedia Commons)

Wholesale Prices Tell a Calmer Story

Five days later, the INDEC’s wholesale index offered the government relief: the IPIM rose just 0.8% in July, down from 1.1% in June. Economy Minister Luis Caputo noted it was the lowest monthly reading since May 2025 and the lowest for any July since 2019, and Milei celebrated that July at the wholesale level “started with a zero.”

The details show an anchor and a warning. Crude oil and gas fell 9.2%, dragging the index down, while electricity jumped 5.8% and farm products rose 3.6% — pipeline pressures that could reach consumers by spring.

Wholesale inflation totals 16.6% for the year and 31.1% year-on-year.

What Comes Next

The central bank’s REM survey, published August 6, captures the professional consensus: 2026 closes at 29.8% inflation, the next twelve months at 21.8%, and monthly readings between 1.6% and 1.8% into January 2027. Disinflation continues, in other words — just slower than the president’s book title, The End of Inflation, advertised.

The last mile of any stabilization is always the stickiest; Argentina is now walking it in public.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Argentina’s inflation rate right now?

Consumer prices rose 2.1% in July 2026, the INDEC reported on August 13 — up from 1.9% in June. Inflation totals 19.3% for January–July 2026 and 33.8% measured against July of last year.

Why did Argentina’s inflation accelerate in July 2026?

Mainly seasonal factors: winter-holiday tourism, accommodation and recreation pushed seasonal prices up 4.5%, with recreation and culture rising 5% — the strongest division. Core inflation stayed lower at 1.8%, and wholesale prices rose just 0.8%, suggesting limited underlying pressure.

Will Argentina reach zero monthly inflation in 2026?

Unlikely. The BCRA’s REM survey of banks and consultancies, published August 6, projects monthly inflation between 1.6% and 1.8% into January 2027 and 29.8% for all of 2026 — no zero-comma month appears anywhere on the forecast horizon.