Monday, May 25, 2026 · Covering Friday May 22 session and weekend

Summary

COLCAP Colombia market report: the index fell 0.85% to 2,083.39 on Friday May 22, opening at the day high 2,101.35 and closing at the day low — a clean Open=High bearish exhaustion. Ecopetrol led the slide (−2.46% to COP $2,575) on softer oil and a new sulfur-supply deal under review. The poll blackout now binds: Sunday’s May 24 surveys were the last public read before the May 31 first round.

The Big Three

1.
COLCAP closed Friday at a cycle low 2,083.39 (−0.85%, −17.96 pts) on a textbook Open=High candle: open 2,101.35 = day high, close = day low. The 20.82-point range is the second narrowest of the month — distribution, not panic. The index sliced below the Kijun cluster 2,097.65 that had capped every rally since May 12.

2.
Ecopetrol fell 2.46% to COP $2,575, intraday low $2,565, leading the slide on softer Brent and a Monomeros–Gecelca sulfur deal under union review. RSI fast 35.63 below slow 35.52 sits at the deepest oversold of the cycle, paired with a narrow MACD histogram −2.38 — the bearish momentum has not yet widened.

3.
The political calendar is the binding constraint. The 7-day poll-publication blackout begins today — Sunday’s May 24 surveys were the last public read. Cepeda closed his campaign Friday May 23 at Bogotá’s Bolívar Square calling Uribe a “fascist”; Sunday May 24 was the legal end of all public campaign events. From here, the market trades on whispers and rallies, not data.

BVC · Bogotá
May 25, 2026 · 06:11

§04 · Market Commentary

The cleanest read this week is the FX–equity divergence. Equities posted a new cycle low at 2,083 on a clean Open=High distribution, but the peso STRENGTHENED 0.78% to a two-week high near $3,672 — the kind of split that says selling is equity-specific (Ecopetrol, election overhang) rather than broad COP-weakness risk-off. The carry trade at BanRep’s 11.25% is still doing its work; foreign capital is rotating from equities into local fixed income to hold yield through the political event, not exiting Colombia outright.

The probability tree is intact. Invamer’s April Cepeda 44.3% / De la Espriella 21.5% / Valencia 19.8% is the last firm read; AtlasIntel had Valencia beating Cepeda 47.1–39.6 head-to-head. Cepeda’s 8.5–9M ceiling sits well below the 11.4M needed to win outright, so a June 21 runoff is the base case. With polls dark, every move from here is a Bayesian update on whispers.

MSCI COLCAP daily, BVC. TradingView · May 25, 2026 06:11 UTC

Resistance: 2,094.79 (BB mid) · 2,097.65 (Kijun) · 2,108.50 (cloud top) · 2,143.07 (20-DMA)

Support: 2,083.39 (Fri low) · 2,044.26 (BB lower) · 200-DMA low 2,040s · 2,000 (round)

Invalidation: Daily close below the 200-DMA breaks the long-term uptrend; that is the Cepeda-outright tail print.

Today · Poll blackout begins

Sunday’s May 24 surveys were the last public read; from here the tape trades on whispers.

Sunday May 31 · First round

Polls open 8:00 local; preliminary results by 19:00. Base case: June 21 runoff with Cepeda vs De la Espriella or Valencia.

Sunday June 21 · Runoff (if needed)

Invamer projects Cepeda wins all simulations; AtlasIntel has Valencia 47.1–39.6 — the methodology spread is the trade.

June 17–18 · First Warsh FOMC

Polymarket hike odds 52%; hold-with-hawkish-dots is the likely outcome and the COP-pressure variable.

Why did equities sell off while the peso strengthened?

The split says the selling is equity-specific (Ecopetrol, election); the BanRep 11.25% carry is still working.

What does the poll blackout mean for trading?

Colombian law restricts new public polls in the seven days pre-vote; the tape trades on closing-rally optics and private numbers, not data.

What is the market’s preferred outcome?

A Valencia runoff path is the upside; a Cepeda outright first-round win is the tail that breaks the 200-DMA.

Verdict

COLCAP printed a cycle low on a clean Open=High distribution candle, and the polls have gone dark. The peso’s 0.78% gain says this is an equity-specific event, not broad capital flight. RSI 35.63 and a narrow MACD spread argue stabilisation, but the political binary now has no information feedback for six days. Whispers and rally optics will drive the tape until Sunday.

Related: Fri May 22 bounce report · Election preview · May 20 decoupling.

Six days dark, one Sunday loud: the May 31 print resets the tape.