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EU Plans Brazil Chicken Return After 7 Weeks

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BRAZIL · TRADE

Key Facts

  • —What is happening The European Commission said on Wednesday, 21 October, that it will propose letting Brazilian chicken meat and honey back into the EU, while keeping Brazilian beef out.
  • —Why it matters The EU has blocked Brazilian animal products since Thursday, 3 September, over antibiotic rules, while a US waiver of a 26.4% beef import duty on extra volumes runs to about 30 November.
  • —The numbers In 2025 the EU bought US$1.8 billion of Brazilian animal products, including US$1.05 billion of beef, US$762 million of chicken and about US$6 million of honey.
  • —Who is who The Commission is the EU executive, and member states vote in its standing committee on plants, animals, food and feed, which decides which countries may export to the bloc.
  • —What to watch The member state vote at the next meeting of that committee, for which no date has been published, and any later proposal on Brazilian beef.
  • —Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
  • —What it means for you The EU ruling leaves Brazilian beef without its third largest market while a US duty waiver on extra beef imports runs, and it does not change US rules for Brazilian honey.

Prediction markets · who wins the runoff

Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.

Polymarket

Flávio Bolsonaro 78.8% · Lula 21.5% (US$191 million traded)

Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)

Flávio Bolsonaro 79% · Lula 22%

As of 22 October, 5:00 am ET (10:00 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.

Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.

The European Commission will propose letting Brazilian chicken and honey back into the EU after a positive audit. Beef stays out for now.

The European Commission said on Wednesday, 21 October, that it intends to propose letting Brazilian chicken and honey back into the EU. It does not plan to do the same for beef.

Brazil Election Data Room

Runoff poll average: Flávio Bolsonaro 51.1%, Lula 48.9%

33 national polls from 19 pollsters since 4 October, updated hourly. Every poll, free to download.

The split matters in the US, where a waiver of the beef import duty on extra volumes runs to about 30 November. Brazil is the world’s largest exporter of both beef and chicken, the daily Folha de S.Paulo notes.

What the EU Said About Brazil Chicken Exports

The Commission, the EU’s executive arm, said it had shown member states its audit results for Brazil’s chicken and honey. It called the conclusions positive, according to the news site g1 and Folha.

Member states raised three questions, the Commission said. They asked about the scope of the proposal, the system that separates products for different markets, and controls on veterinary prescriptions.

The Commission confirmed it will propose putting Brazil back on the list of approved suppliers for those two products. Member states must still vote on it in the standing committee on plants, animals, food and feed.

Commission auditors visited Brazilian farms, plants and official bodies from Monday, 24 August to Friday, 4 September. Their final report, published on Monday, 28 September, found Brazil’s controls can give the guarantees EU law requires, the agriculture ministry says.

The ministry, known as Mapa, asked for the report to go on that committee’s agenda for 20 and 21 October. None of the sources reviewed gives a date for the vote.

The curved glass and white louvre facade of the Berlaymont building in Brussels with three EU flags in frontThe Berlaymont building in Brussels, headquarters of the European Commission, pictured in 2022. The photo does not show the 21 October meeting. Photo: Euro Pictures / Wikimedia Commons (CC BY 2.0)

Why Brazilian Beef Stays Out

On Tuesday, 12 May, the EU said it was dropping Brazil from its list of countries meeting its antibiotic rules. The bloc bans using antimicrobials to make animals grow faster.

The ban took effect on Thursday, 3 September, nearly seven weeks before the statement, and covers beef, chicken, honey, fish and eggs. The news site g1 says it was prompted by weak controls over drug use, not by irregularities found in Brazilian meat.

For beef, the Commission said Brazil cannot yet reliably certify that the rules are met across an animal’s whole life. Jean-Pierre Bou, deputy head of the EU delegation in Brazil, told g1 cattle take about two years to raise.

Brazil created a protocol in June to track animals from birth to slaughter. The Commission still does not plan to propose putting beef back on the list for now.

Roberto Perosa, who heads the beef exporters’ group Abiec, says more than 20 countries follow the EU list, including the United Kingdom. The news site g1 adds that Norway has also stopped buying Brazilian animal protein.

What the Ban Has Cost Brazil

The EU bought US$1.8 billion of Brazilian animal products in 2025, or 368,100 tonnes, according to Agrostat, the agriculture ministry’s trade database. The regional radio news service Brasil61 reports that figure.

CNN Brasil, citing Agrostat and the poultry group ABPA, puts chicken at US$762 million and beef at US$1.05 billion. Honey was only about US$6 million on roughly 1,000 tonnes.

CNN Brasil adds that the EU is second after China among Brazil’s meat markets by value, and third for beef. Brasil61 says chicken sales to the EU averaged US$97.1 million a month in 2026.

Brasil61 estimated chicken losses of about US$243 million if the ban lasted until November. That is an estimate rather than an official figure.

What It Means for US Readers

The EU ruling does not change US rules for Brazilian honey. The United States is the main buyer, with 85.4% of Brazil’s honey exports in the first ten months of 2025.

That was 26,137 tonnes worth US$87.6 million, according to Deral, the rural economics department of Paraná state, using Agrostat data. The EU market for honey is far smaller.

Beef is the bigger link for US buyers. On Wednesday, 26 August, President Donald Trump signed a proclamation allowing up to 300,000 tonnes of extra beef imports, MercoPress reports.

The quota runs for 90 days from 1 September. The extra volume enters free of a 26.4% out of quota duty and is lean trimmings for ground beef, MercoPress says.

Brazil and Paraguay are the expected main suppliers of the extra volume. Argentina and Uruguay are excluded, MercoPress reports.

With the EU still closed to Brazilian beef, Brazilian packers have one fewer large market while that US window is open. Insper business school professor Marcos Jank said in September that part of the lost EU sales would go to the US.

Folha names JBS, MBRF and Minerva as Brazil’s large meat processors. Background is in earlier reports on the EU freeze on Brazilian meat, the US beef waiver and Lula’s appeal to Brussels.

See also China’s limit on the Brazil poultry ban for the Newcastle disease side of the story. The Brazil hub has more coverage.

What Is Not Known

It is not known when member states will vote or how they will vote. The Commission’s own statement could not be opened, so its wording here comes from Folha, g1 and O Sul.

It is also not known how soon shipments would restart once Brazil is back on the list. Honey figures differ by outlet and period, and the 2025 values here rest on Agrostat data as reported by Brazilian outlets.

Newcastle disease on a Santa Catarina turkey farm, confirmed on Monday, 19 October, led Malaysia and Mexico to halt Brazilian poultry. China, Saudi Arabia and Chile limit their curbs to the state, and the EU is not on the ministry’s list.

What Comes Next

Member states vote at the next meeting of the standing committee. Brazil returns to the list only if the measure passes and is formally adopted.

Beef would need a separate Commission proposal, which it does not plan for now. The US waiver on extra beef imports ends on about 30 November.

Frequently Asked Questions

What did the European Commission say about Brazil on 21 October?

It said it will propose letting Brazilian chicken meat and honey back into the EU after a positive audit. It does not plan a proposal for beef.

Has the EU ban on Brazilian chicken ended?

No, the ban is still in force. Member states must still vote at the next meeting of the standing committee, and no date has been published.

Why is the EU still blocking Brazilian beef?

The Commission says Brazil cannot yet reliably certify that antimicrobial rules are met across an animal’s whole life. Cattle take about two years to raise.

How much did the EU buy from Brazil before the ban?

The EU bought US$1.8 billion of Brazilian animal products in 2025, including US$1.05 billion of beef and US$762 million of chicken. Those figures come from Agrostat and ABPA data reported by Brazilian outlets.

Does this change US imports of Brazilian beef?

Not directly. A US duty waiver for extra beef imports already runs for 90 days from 1 September.

Sources: Ministry of Agriculture (Mapa), EU audit report, 28 September; Mapa, Newcastle disease export restrictions; g1, 21 October; g1, Newcastle restrictions, 21 October; Folha de S.Paulo C-Level, 21 October; Jornal O Sul, 21 October; CNN Brasil, trade values; Brasil61, 3 September; Agrolink, Deral honey bulletin; MercoPress, 28 August; Nebraska Farm Bureau, 31 August (all accessed 22 October 2026).

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