South Korea’s ruling Democratic Party is likely to win 11 of the 16 metropolitan and provincial gubernatorial races in local elections, according to the exit polls broadcast by the three major public broadcasters: KBS, MBC, and SBS. While facing tighter than expected contests in several high-profile races, the DP appears set to win a landslide victory in the elections thanks to the high approval ratings of South Korean President Lee Jae-myung.

According to local media reports, early data suggested that the voter turnout in the June 3 local elections was 61.0 percent, which is 11 percentage points higher than the previous local elections in 2022. That year, the main opposition People Power Party (PPP) won a landslide victory in the wake of its victory in the presidential elections in March 2022. The final voter turnout has not yet been announced as of this writing. 

If the results of the joint exit polls are confirmed, the PPP would only secure wins in the areas where South Korean conservatives have garnered unconditional support for decades.

Due to Lee’s approval rating and the PPP’s failure to distance itself from the now-imprisoned Yoon Suk-yeol, the impeached president of South Korea who is also Lee’s predecessor, the scale of the DP’s victory was broadly anticipated. However, the close margin of votes between the DP and PPP candidates in regions such as Seoul, Busan and Daegu demonstrates that the voters differentiated between the popular Lee and the DP writ large by showing less support for the DP candidates. 

In Seoul, DP’s mayoral candidate Chong Won-oh led PPP incumbent Oh Se-hoon by 5.4 percentage points, 51.4 percent to 46.0 percent, according to the exit polls. The Seoul mayoral race had been the most closely watched contest of the cycle as Oh, seeking his fifth term as Seoul mayor, had kept closing a gap that earlier surveys had shown in the past few weeks. The Seoul mayor holds a unique constitutional standing among 16 governors and mayors in the metropolitan areas as it is the only such office entitled to attend Cabinet meetings, making the office a platform with direct national visibility. In this context, the DP has poured its resources into the race to reclaim the Seoul mayoralty and bolster Lee’s governing agenda.

The Seoul election was marred by reports that 12 voting booths in three different districts in the city ran out of ballot papers, forcing voters to wait to be able to cast a ballot. The secretary general of the National Election Commission made a public apology for the issue during a press briefing. The unusual incidents gave the PPP an opening to question the results; already, the PPP floor leader has called for the elections in Seoul to be re-held.

The PPP has a history of making baseless accusations of election rigging, notably after the 2020 and 2024 general elections. These claims have been repeatedly debunked and dismissed by the National Election Commission, South Korean courts, and independent watchdogs. 

In Busan, the DP’s mayoral candidate Jeon Jae-soo, who is also a former minister of maritime affairs and fisheries, led Park Heong-joon, the PPP’s candidate and incumbent, by 1.9 percentage points, 50.2 percent to 48.3 percent. Should the result hold, it would show that the residents in Busan acknowledged the Lee administration’s efforts to develop the city as the hub of the country’s Arctic policy, despite the narrow margin in the vote between the two candidates. Notably, the Lee administration moved the Ministry of Maritime Affairs and Fisheries from Seoul to Busan. 

Daegu, South Korea’s third-largest urban area, has drawn more attention than usual during the local election cycle. Daegu is located in North Gyeongsang Province, a diehard conservative region of South Korea. The DP’s candidate Kim Boo-kyum, a former prime minister during the Moon Jae-in administration, has described his campaign as a final bid to breakthrough for the party. No democratic-affiliated candidate has ever won the Daegu mayoral race since South Korea began holding direct local elections in 1995. Kim is facing off against Choo Kyung-ho, the PPP candidate who is also a former three-term lawmaker and floor leader of the party. 

Similar to Seoul, the gap in approval ratings between Kim and Choo has consistently narrowed. According to the exit polls, Kim trailed Choo by 0.8 percentage points, 49.1 percent to 49.9 percent, well within the margin of error. Kim framed his candidacy as a challenge to the regional political divisions that have long defined South Korean politics. However, so-called shy conservatives again seem to have voted for candidates affiliated with the party they have unconditionally supported.

Along with the key mayoral elections, 14 National Assembly by-elections were also held on the same day. According to the exit polls, the DP won 12 of the 14 seats, which would help the DP to continue to enjoy a wide majority in the National Assembly. 

Han Dong-hoon, a former party chief who was expelled from the PPP after supporting Yoon’s impeachment, ran as an independent in his district in Busan. However, Han trailed by 1 percentage point in a three-way contest between DP candidate Ha Jung-woo, who built his public profile as an artificial intelligence adviser in the Lee administration, and PPP candidate Park Min-sik. 

In Pyeongtaek, one of the cities in Gyeonggi Province, Cho Kuk, a leader of the minor progressive Rebuilding Korea Party and a former justice minister during the Moon Jae-in administration, received 31.1 percent of vote, according to the exit polls, while PPP candidate Yoo Eui-dong received 30.6 percent. DP candidate Kim Yong-nam, a former PPP lawmaker from the Suwon area who switched parties during the presidential elections last year, trailed by 0.8 percentage points with 30.3 percent. During the campaigns, Cho consistently questioned Kim’s legitimacy as the DP candidate due to the history of his remarks criticizing the DP and Lee years ago. In this context, the liberal bloc has been divided, as Cho framed himself as the true candidate who would work for Lee and could integrate the liberal bloc after the election. 

Due to the close margin of votes between the DP and PPP candidates in key races, the final results will likely come out in the early morning on June 4. Even if the DP sweeps the contests that are currently too close to call, however, the tight races suggest that the public’s attitude toward the DP was separated from Lee’s high approval ratings. In other words, the party failed to make the most of its advantages in local campaigning.