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The biggest trend contributing to the uncertainty about Uber's (NYSE: UBER) future comes from autonomous vehicle (AV) technology. There are concerns that the company's massive ride-hailing platform will face disruption and become obsolete if Tesla or Alphabet's Waymo, for example, rapidly scale and find tremendous adoption introducing their driverless platforms in markets around the world.

The worries might have grown because Uber is committing to a $10 billion investment plan ($2.5 billion toward equity stakes and $7.5 billion to buy AVs) over the next few years. This introduces a new strategic focus, as the business moves away from its asset-light approach to a capital-intensive pivot.

A valid argument can be made that Uber, which plans to have AV rides on its platform in 15 cities by the end of 2026, is trying to catch up to Waymo's dominance. Waymo is now completing 500,000 AV rides per week in the U.S.

I understand why investors have more questions than answers. If Uber's platform is so powerful, why does it need to shell out $10 billion to get AV supply on board? Investors need to pay close attention to how the AV landscape evolves. Uber shares trade 23% below their peak (as of April 17), so maybe the market is starting to become bearish.

However, I lean toward optimism. With its 202 million monthly active users, Uber controls the demand side of the equation. It makes sense for management to spend $10 billion to foster AV adoption occurring within its own ecosystem. This is a move that could pay off significantly in the long run, so it's a reasonable capital allocation decision to make.

And it's difficult to complain about Uber's projected financial performance. Its revenue and operating income are expected to grow at compound annual rates of 13% and 32%, respectively, between 2025 and 2028. That upbeat outlook makes the current 16.3 price-to-earnings ratio look compelling.