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But with renewables unable to meet the full extent of demand, rising gas prices will still push some consumers to turn to coal. Power analysts with the London Stock Exchange Group estimate European countries could generate around 20% more electricity from coal this summer than last, if the European gas benchmark averages about 50 euros per megawatt-hour. That figure currently stands at around 54 euros. 

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“This is a bigger disruption than the Russian war,” said Tony Knutson, global head of thermal coal markets at consultancy Wood Mackenzie Ltd, given the impact on a larger number of countries. Those without enough gas will be forced to pull the coal lever, he added. “I don’t think they have a choice.”

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The biggest swing to coal is likely to be in Asia, where a heavy reliance on oil and gas from the Middle East — and in many cases a limited ability to absorb higher costs — is already causing acute pain. Newcastle coal futures, the benchmark for the power plant fuel in Asia, has climbed by roughly a third this year, hitting the highest level since 2024 earlier this month.

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Large economies like Japan, South Korea and Taiwan are major liquefied natural gas importers and also maintain large coal fleets, giving them the ability — and in some cases the incentive — to burn more dirtier fuel as LNG supplies tighten. Japan will allow more coal-fired plants in capacity auctions, and South Korea has also said it is considering moving away from its own curbs on more polluting power.

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For top consumers that are also large producers, like India, war-driven fuel shortages strengthen the case for coal — especially as temperatures begin to climb ahead of the summer, lifting demand. 

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Authorities plan to ask coal plants to defer voluntary maintenance shutdowns until peak demand passes and have instructed Tata Power Co.’s four‑gigawatt plant in Gujarat, which was shut for months, to operate at full capacity until June, when rains usually begin to cover the country. 

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Coal India Ltd., the world’s largest producer of the fuel, saw shares rise to the highest since 2024 earlier this month. 

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“This crisis has given a new leverage to coal in India,” said Anandji Prasad, technical director at Western Coalfields Ltd., a unit of Coal India. “We have been looking at aggressively developing coal for power generation, but this crisis has brought in focus the need to substitute petroleum products and gas with coal.”

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The country’s cement plants, long reliant on petcoke, a by-product of oil refining, were among those forced to reconsider when prices began to soar.

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“We’re stocking up coal for the next 2-3 months, but this can’t be a long-term solution,” said Hari Mohan Bangur, chairman of Shree Cement Ltd., pointing to the lower ash content and higher calorific value of the standard feedstock. “The cement industry needs petcoke.”

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Neighboring Bangladesh’s new government has been forced to seek $2 billion in loans to be able to import enough fuel to survive the summer. The country is also set to run coal-fired plants at maximum levels in the near-term as LNG prices rise and power shortages deepen, said Shafiqul Alam, lead analyst for the country at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis.

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China, as the world’s largest consumer, is theoretically vulnerable. In fact, it has been reaping the benefit of a long-standing campaign to diversify energy supply and — after a series of power shortages in 2021 and 2022 — to double down on domestic coal production.

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Still, the most insulated major economy appears to be the US. Massive shale production, combined with export capacity that was maxed out even before the war, have kept gas prices little changed since the start of the war, providing little fresh incentive to eye coal. 

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Even so, political support from President Donald Trump’s administration has given the fuel a boost. Earlier this month, Terra Energy Center announced a $1 billion investment in what would be the first new coal power project in more than a decade in the country.