Daiki Kato Photographer: Louise Delmotte/Bloomberg Photo by Louise Delmotte /Bloomberg

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(Bloomberg) — Japan’s reliance on the Middle East for aluminum is forcing companies to cut back on production and scramble for alternative supply sources after key shipping routes were severed due to the Iran conflict. 

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Among the most exposed are auto and parts makers such as Toyota Motor Corp. and Denso Corp. Domestic carmakers get about 70% of their aluminum imports from the Middle East, according to the nation’s top auto lobby. The price of the lightweight alloy — used in everything from engine parts to wheels — has jumped about 13% since hostilities started in late February. 

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“It’s only been a month but it’s almost certain that we’ll soon have trouble making automobile parts,” Daiki Kato, chief executive officer of Kato Light Metal Industry Co., said in an interview in late March. “We’re going to spend more selectively and conserve our energy.”

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With the Middle East’s top aluminum producer predicting it would take at least a year to restore full production, Japan is at the forefront of what may spiral into a prolonged global shortage of the metal. JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts warned last week that the industry had entered a “black hole” it won’t easily come back from. Even if a peace deal is reached and the vita; Strait of Hormuz reopens, it could still take months for shipping to resume normal levels. 

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Japan imported around 590,000 tons of aluminum, or about 30% of its total supply from the Middle East in 2025, according to the Japan Aluminum Association. America imports more aluminum than Japan but US companies aren’t in danger of running out of aluminum because they get most of their supply at home and Canada, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.   

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Japan is the most vulnerable country to aluminum shortages, according to S&P Global Inc. analyst Masatoshi Nishimoto. Southeast Asia, China and South Korea are also among nations that face “the greatest risk,” he said. 

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Not only has the war reduced shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, but key aluminum refineries in Abu Dhabi and Bahrain were damaged in the early stages of the conflict as Iran attacked its regional neighbors in response to the US and Israeli assault. 

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One company feeling the impact is Kato Light Metal. Based in Aichi Prefecture, the firm makes a variety of aluminum products, mostly for construction or automobiles. 

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It imports about 400 tons of aluminum every month — roughly 200 tons each from Dubai and Australia. While deliveries from the Middle East have stopped, the company said it has enough inventory to last through May. Beyond that, it plans to buy aluminum from a supplier in Southeast Asia.

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Elsewhere, Toyota supplier Denso and its affiliates have had to reduce monthly output by around 20,000 units, the company said in late March, resulting in sizeable losses.