Carolyn Beeler: Kenya has tapped into this geothermal power, but its neighbors mostly have not yet. What has set Kenya apart here?

Anderson Kehbila: Yeah, so, Kenya actually took a very different approach, and they did this by de-risking the very high capital investment because this is a very costly and expensive process, especially at the early stages. So, they did this by using public finance for early exploration and then absorbing the drilling risk. So, by doing these very strategic investments, they actually made geothermal more attractive to independent power producers.

I want to tease out a little bit of what you said there. So basically, the government came in and supported the early, very expensive exploration stage, the drilling of test wells to see where would be a good place to site these geothermal power plants. Then private companies came in and felt comfortable developing these resources. Did I get that about right?

Yes, yes, exactly.

So, Kenya’s neighbors that do not yet have geothermal power plants, is it fair to say that is holding them back? The policy that made it financially feasible for companies to do this?

Yeah, that’s actually what made Kenya emerge as a leader. They have had a very long-term energy policy that goes beyond the short political cycle. So, once every government comes, they keep maintaining that long-term goal of exploration and development.

So, outside of Kenya, in this big geothermal patch, only Ethiopia has one small geothermal plant right now, but both Ethiopia and Tanzania are trying to develop their geothermal energy. What is triggering that interest right now?

Not only has the private sector seen the financial benefits, but other governments have also seen the benefit because it’s actually stable, you know, power resources as compared to hydro where at times you have very minimal flow rates of the dam through the dry season. They are now tapping into that potential to follow the same path that Kenya took to de-risk that investment and then bring in the private sector to take it from there.

What are the hurdles that Tanzania and Ethiopia are going to have to overcome if they do want to get power plants built?

Yeah, apart from the cost, another hurdle is the technical capacity because it’s quite specialized. So, you have to invest in developing that technical capacity in terms of the engineers, exploration, drilling. That’s something that governments really have to invest in and also put in place long-term energy policies that do not depend on the political cycle, the government coming in and then driving the same agenda that’s been going on for the past decade.

Is the war in Iran and the skyrocketing prices of LNG and oil, is that changing the calculation at all for some of Kenya’s neighbors and their interest in developing geothermal?

Well, what I know is that for sure in Kenya, we really had fuel shortages, and even they were going about fuel rationing. So, that’s something that is now becoming like a reckoning, not only for Kenya, but also for other neighboring countries to see how they can start developing their own resource to have this stability of supply. So, I believe that’s something that governments are now taking into consideration, you know, by developing the renewable and geothermal energy, especially for the East African countries in the Rift Valley.

In Kenya, the Maasai people were displaced from their historic lands so that geothermal power plants could be built. Is that a risk that is going to be a continuing part of this story as geothermal expands, if it expands?

There’s always this issue of informed consent. Definitely, the government has to work together with the local communities in terms of participatory decision-making and getting the consent of the local community. At times, that process is never followed through, but generally that’s what we recommend as a research institute, to actually engage the communities, get their feedback, the challenges that they face, and really co-develop the solution with them. And also, in the Kenyan Constitution, there’s also this aspect of, you know, the right of people to decide their social and economic well-being. So, that’s also something that the Constitution requires the government to do. But at times it’s not quite clear if they’re actually following that process.

It sounds like the things that have made this geothermal boom possible in Kenya are long-term government planning and investments from the government. Are there other lessons that other countries should take from Kenya’s example if they are interested in developing more geothermal energy?

Kenya’s experience has actually demonstrated that geothermal success does not depend only on the natural resource availability, but also on long-term commitment beyond these short political cycles, as well as institutional coordination, building the technical capacity, as bringing in, you know, issues of de-risking and financing strategies. That’s exactly what Kenya did, and together with development partners, and all this is like a package that has to be put in place for it to make it very successful.

Kenya is trying to become carbon neutral by 2030. That is only four years away. That sounds wildly optimistic. What portion of that is going to come from geothermal?

Kenya wants to have 100% electricity generation by 2030.

One hundred percent electricity generation from geothermal by 2030?

From renewable energy by 2030. As of 2023, they were at 90% and geothermal contributed 47% of that mix.

So, they’re on track to maybe actually get there by 2030?

Yeah, yeah, they are really on track if they keep [this] up.

Wow. A rare success story.

Yeah, really a success story to learn from. But geothermal is quite expensive. And right now, though the grid is almost more than 90% renewable, there is this cost implication because the cost of electricity is quite high in Kenya. So, there’s a need to balance, you know, this issue of renewable energy development, as well as the cost of consumption by the households.