The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has announced that the southwest monsoon is now expected to reach Kerala on Thursday (June 4, 2026). This marks the official start of the rainy season in India.

Although we often think of the monsoon in terms of Kerala's coastal weather, its arrival affects the whole country’s economy, agriculture, and water supply. Let’s see how.

Why monsoon enters India from Kerala?

Kerala’s geographical position is a significant factor influencing its climate, particularly its monsoon patterns. Situated on the southwest coast of India, Kerala is positioned to experience the first impact of the southwest monsoon, which typically commences around the end of May and continues into September.

This monsoon is a critical climatic phenomenon for the Indian subcontinent, as it brings much-needed rainfall to various regions.

Also read: Why do monsoons hit Kerala first?

The state’s location along the Arabian Sea allows it to be the first landmass to encounter moisture-laden winds originating over the Indian Ocean. As these winds travel northwestward, they gather moisture from the ocean surface. When these winds reach the Indian subcontinent, they encounter the Western Ghats, a formidable mountain range that runs parallel to the coast.

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These mountains create a barrier that forces the incoming monsoon winds to ascend. As the winds rise, they undergo adiabatic cooling, a process in which the air temperature decreases as it expands at higher altitudes. This cooling effect leads to the condensation of water vapor in the air, forming clouds and ultimately resulting in precipitation.

The geography also causes rainfall even before the monsoon progresses into the interior parts of India. As a result, Kerala often experiences heavy early showers, sometimes referred to as pre-monsoon or onset rains, which can be intense and abundant.

These early rains are essential for agricultural practices in Kerala, as they help to prepare the soil for the main monsoon season.

Why monsoon is important for India?

The southwest monsoon is crucial for India, bringing in about 80% of the annual rainfall. This is essential because it waters a lot of unirrigated farmland. When the monsoon arrives on time and provides enough rain, it sets the stage for planting important summer crops like rice, pulses, and sugarcane. This helps in securing food supplies as well as improving the incomes of countless rural families.

Beyond agricultural needs, these rains play a key role in refilling major reservoirs, which are vital for hydroelectric power and drinking water. Moreover, when crop yields are strong, food prices tend to remain stable, which helps keep consumer spending healthy and supports the overall economy. Hence, monsoon is a crucial driver for many aspects of life in India.

Which Kerala districts are on alert?

Between June 2 and 6, the IMD has forecast widespread rainfall across the state, accompanied by lightning and strong winds with speeds ranging from 40 kmph to 50 kmph.

The IMD also issued ‘orange alerts’ for four districts on Wednesday (June 3), eight districts on Thursday (June 4) and seven districts on Friday (June 5), while the remaining districts were placed under ‘yellow alert’ on those days. The IMD also issued an ‘orange alert’ for three northern Kerala districts — Malappuram, Kozhikode and Wayanad — for Tuesday (June 2), and a ‘yellow alert’ for the remaining 11 districts.

Also read: Explained | Shifting monsoon patterns

An ‘orange alert’ indicates very heavy rainfall between 11 cm and 20 cm, while a ‘yellow alert’ indicates heavy rainfall between 6 cm and 11 cm.

Will El Niño affect the monsoon this year?

In India, El Niño causes weak rainfall and more heat, while La Niña intensifies rainfall across South Asia, particularly in India’s northwest and Bangladesh during the monsoon.

The United Nations weather agency forecast ‌on Tuesday (June 2) predicted a moderate or possibly strong El Niño that could drive up ​global temperatures and increase the risk of extreme weather over the coming ⁠months. This indicates that rainfall from the southwest monsoon, which occurs between June and September, may be below average throughout much of South Asia, particularly impacting central regions. The forecast map provided by the agency shows that most areas of India are expected to experience below-normal rainfall.