Five binary clocks run at once on Thursday. Argentina prints April CPI at 16:00 Buenos Aires time, with the Banco Central REM consensus at 2.6%. A sub-3% print would be the first in twelve months.Brazil absorbs the worst big-bank Q1 of the cycle as Banco do Brasil cuts full-year guidance from R$22-26bn to R$18-22bn after a R$3.43 billion print. Agro non-performing loans 90 days have more than doubled from 2.76% to 6.22% over twelve months.Bolivia escalates from 67 simultaneous road blockades to a state-intervention order from Police Commander Mirko Sokol. Cuba breaches the 2,000-MW deficit threshold for a second consecutive night at 2,113 MW. Peru’s ONPE confirms the June 7 runoff opponent at 99.94% counted.

The Ibovespa closed Wednesday at 177,098 (down 1.80%). USD/BRL broke 4.90 to 5.01. Brent steady near $106 with Hormuz still closed.

01 · Argentina Volatile

INDEC publishes April CPI today at 16:00 Buenos Aires time. Banco Central REM consensus stands at 2.6%, with the top-10 analyst median at 2.7%, LCG’s food tracker at 1.7%, LyP at 2.4% and Equilibra at 2.5%.

March printed 3.4%, year-to-date 9.4%, interannual around 32-33%. A sub-3% number would be the first in twelve months. MERVAL closed Tuesday down 1.96% to 2,738,355 pre-binary. ARS held at 1,392.

02 · Brazil Mixed

Banco do Brasil’s Q1 result released after Wednesday’s close was the worst among the big banks. Net income of R$3.43 billion came in 53.5% below the same quarter of 2025. CEO Tarciana Medeiros cut full-year guidance from R$22-26bn to R$18-22bn.

Return on equity collapsed to 7.3% versus BTG Pactual’s record 26.6%. Agro NPL 90 days rose from 2.76% to 6.22% over twelve months. Tuesday night, President Lula signed an MP zeroing the 20% federal import duty on Shein-class apparel (“blusinhas”), a populist reversal five months before October. The EU separately announced a ban on Brazilian beef exports from September 3 over antibiotic non-compliance.

03 · Bolivia Bearish

The state moved. President Rodrigo Paz Pereira authorised Police Commander Mirko Sokol to intervene every blockade point and Fiscal General Róger Mariaca to open penal and civil proceedings against blockade leaders.

The Cámara Boliviana de Transporte counted 5,000 trucks stranded, losing USD 720,000 per day. Tourism losses reached BOB 150 million. Two indirect deaths from blocked medical access have been recorded. The Central Obrera Boliviana indefinite paro is in its second week against 14% interannual inflation.

The Read
The institutional cost of inflation is being paid through different transmission channels in each country today: monetary in Argentina, fiscal in Brazil, social in Bolivia, energy in Cuba. The channel chosen reveals which institution is weakest. The Dossier walks through five scenarios across the June 17-18 Copom decision.

04 · Cuba Bearish

Tuesday May 12 set an annual record. The deficit hit 2,113 MW at 20:40, exceeding the March 6 mark of 2,075 MW. Wednesday’s forecast called for 2,050 MW deficit at peak with 63% of the island dark.

Morning availability stood at 1,200 MW versus demand of 2,860 MW. Eight of sixteen thermoelectric units remained offline. The Russian Anatoly Kolodkin’s 730,000 barrels of crude have been exhausted since late April. Marianao residents banged cacerolazos Tuesday night; “Patria y Vida” graffiti appeared in Arroyo Naranjo. OE 14404 GAESA cut-off deadline is June 5.

05 · Colombia Bearish

The Consejo de Estado fully suspended Decreto 415 on May 11, voiding the COP 25-27 trillion (USD 5.9 billion) pension transfer covering 120,000 affiliates. President Petro responded by demanding criminal prevaricato action against the magistrate ponente and invoking the “Asamblea Constituyente.”

The Rama Judicial issued a separate May 12 statement defending judicial independence. COLCAP fell 0.73% to 2,073. The peso lost 3.01% in the week ending May 8, worst among emerging markets. Gilinski’s Nutresa passed Ecopetrol as the most valuable listed Colombian company. First round May 31; runoff June 21.

06 · Mexico Volatile

CNN reported CIA Ground Branch operations in Chihuahua, linked to the March death of Sinaloa operator Francisco Beltrán. President Sheinbaum responded that the operation constitutes “una falta a la Constitución.” US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth issued a public ultimatum: Mexico must “dar un paso adelante” against cartels or the US intervenes.

The Acuerdo Global modernised with the EU was ratified May 12 by 27 member states. USD 42 billion electricity push opens through three investment channels. Morena dirigente María Lucía Mora was assassinated in Chihuahua. IPC México held above 70,000 at 70,187, alone in the green among LATAM majors.

07 · Peru Watch

ONPE at 99.94% confirmed Roberto Sánchez (Juntos por el Perú) as Fujimori’s June 7 runoff opponent, with a roughly 19,000-vote margin over López Aliaga. Sánchez took 12.02% (2,014,067 votes); López Aliaga 11.91% (1,993,762). Fujimori led with 17.18% (2,876,785).

Ipsos for Perú21 (April 23-24) has the head-to-head at 38-38%, with 17% null or blank. Sánchez wins Cajamarca, Huancavelica and Apurímac. He self-styles as the “Castillista candidate.” The runoff becomes Fujimorismo versus Castillismo redux.

08 · Venezuela Watch

The Asamblea Nacional voted unanimously May 12 to expand the TSJ from 20 to 32 magistrates. Caryslia Beatriz Rodríguez was re-elected TSJ president; the Sala Constitucional rises from 5 to 7 magistrates. The Comité de Postulaciones Judiciales is headed by Giuseppe Alessandrello, a serving military officer affiliated with PSUV.

Acting president Delcy Rodríguez rejected Trump’s May 12 “51st state” floating and travelled in person to The Hague to reject ICJ jurisdiction on Essequibo. Trump demanded “free all political prisoners in Venezuela.” Polling from ORC Consultores: 59% of Venezuelans trust oil companies, more than Trump or their own president.

09 · Trade & Regional Holding

The EU-Mercosur trade agreement entered into force provisionally on May 1, pending EU court review. The European Commission removed Brazil from the list of countries authorised to export animal products effective September 3 over antibiotic non-compliance.

The 27 EU member states ratified the Mexico-EU Modernised Global Agreement on May 12 as a Trump hedge. Presidents Peña and Lai signed a 50/50 Paraguay-Taiwan AI megahub on May 10. Spain and Portugal closed their Golden Visa programmes. Honduras secured an IMF staff-level USD 245 million for end-June disbursement. BTG Pactual posted a record Q1 R$4.8 billion (ROAE 26.6%).

What to Watch

• May 14 · 16:00 BAT · Argentina INDEC April IPC release
• May 14 · 18:30 · Cuba Mesa Redonda press conference
• May 18 · Ecuador Decreto 370 expiration · Bolivia hidrocarburos package window
• May 31 · Colombia first round · Bolivia 14-day blockade horizon
• June 5 · Cuba US OE 14404 GAESA secondary-sanctions deadline
• June 7 · Peru Fujimori-Sánchez presidential runoff
• June 17-18 · Brazil Copom decision (current Selic 14.50%)
• September 3 · EU ban on Brazilian beef and animal products takes effect

Frequently Asked Questions

What does Argentina’s April CPI release at 16:00 BAT mean for markets?

The Banco Central REM consensus is 2.6% for April after March printed 3.4%. A sub-3% print would be the first in twelve months and validates the Milei disinflation thesis, reopening the path to a Banco Central rate cut.

A 3%-plus print pushes the thesis at least one more month right. MERVAL gave back 1.96% on Tuesday pre-print to 2,738,355; the ARS held at 1,392.

Year-to-date inflation stands at 9.4% with interannual around 32-33%. The print determines short-term Argentine equity positioning into Q3.

Why is Banco do Brasil’s Q1 so much worse than the other big banks?

The driver is agro non-performing loans. Banco do Brasil holds the system’s largest agro exposure through Plano Safra, BNDES co-financing and AFR channels.

Brazilian soy farmers borrowed at floating rates indexed to Selic during 2022-2023 when Selic was at 13.75%. The Copom returned to a tightening cycle to 14.50% by Q1 2026. Soy prices fell roughly 18% from their 2024 peak as China demand softened. The two compressions hit the same borrower simultaneously.

Agro NPL 90 days rose from 2.76% to 6.22% over twelve months while total NPL drifted only 75 basis points. Q1 net income was R$3.43 billion (down 53.5%); ROE collapsed to 7.3%. CEO Tarciana Medeiros cut full-year guidance from R$22-26bn to R$18-22bn.

What is the Bolivia state-intervention threat about?

The Central Obrera Boliviana indefinite paro entered its second week against 14% interannual inflation, with 67 simultaneous road blockades counted Tuesday.

President Rodrigo Paz Pereira authorised Police Commander Mirko Sokol to intervene every blockade point and Fiscal General Róger Mariaca to open penal and civil proceedings. Five thousand trucks are stranded losing USD 720,000 per day. Tourism losses reached BOB 150 million. Two indirect deaths from blocked medical access have been recorded.

Federación Túpac Katari, interculturales, alteños and mineros have all joined the COB strike. El Alto declared its own bloqueo indefinido. The Ley 1720 abrogación passed Diputados on May 9 and awaits a Senate vote. Tonight’s police action is the institutional inflection.

Don’t miss the Dossier. Daily research-grade briefings for Latin American analysts, PMs and operators. Subscribe · USD 8.99/mo, 7-day free trial.

Published by Matias Sebastian Lopez, The Rio Times Latin American Desk.