Prospects for U.S. economic growth have brightened, with a broad improvement in leading economic indicators pointing toward a continued expansion, the Conference Board said Thursday.

The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index rose 0.6 percent over the six months ending in September, reversing a 1.1 percent decline in the preceding six months. Eight of the index’s ten components improved during the period, and the indicators showed no warning of an approaching recession.

The index was unchanged in September at 99.6, following a 0.1 percent decline in August. An upward revision to July’s figures also lifted the index above its previously reported level.

The improvement in the underlying trend suggests the economy is likely to continue expanding in the months ahead, according to the Conference Board. Its recession warning indicators are no longer flashing danger, and eight of the ten components of the leading index have improved over the past six months.

The report also included an upward revision to July’s index, with the previously reported 0.2 percent increase revised to a 0.3 percent gain. That lifted the level of the index for August and September above what had been reported previously.

Five of the ten components contributed positively to the index in September. The largest positive contribution came from the spread between the yield on the 10-year Treasury note and the federal funds rate, followed by an increase in average weekly hours worked in manufacturing.

Improvement in the Conference Board’s Leading Credit Index, which measures financial conditions, also contributed positively. Initial claims for unemployment benefits and manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods and materials added to the index.

Those gains were offset by declines in four components, led by a sharp deterioration in consumer expectations for business conditions. Stock prices, new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft, and building permits also made negative contributions. The Institute for Supply Management’s new orders index was unchanged.

The weakness in consumer expectations comes amid a widening divergence between Americans’ views of the economy and measures of actual economic activity. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index plunged 6.7 points in September to 81.9, its lowest level since April 2014, as households became more pessimistic about business conditions and employment prospects.

Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager of business cycle indicators at the Conference Board, said the improvement in the leading index’s six-month growth rate suggests continued economic expansion, with business investment becoming a more important driver of growth relative to consumer spending.

The Conference Board now expects real gross domestic product to grow 2.2 percent in 2026 and 2.0 percent in 2027, reflecting a more favorable outlook than previously forecast.

The improvement in the leading indicators was also supported by a stronger reading from the Conference Board’s Coincident Economic Index, which measures current economic conditions.

That index rose 0.3 percent in September to 115.3, following a 0.1 percent increase in August. All four of its components contributed positively: payroll employment, personal income excluding transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production.

The coincident index increased 0.9 percent over the six months ending in September, accelerating from a 0.2 percent gain during the preceding six months. All four components also advanced over the six-month period.

The gains suggest that economic activity has strengthened in recent months, even as higher interest rates and weak housing demand have weighed on some sectors of the economy.

The September report offered particularly encouraging evidence from manufacturing. Longer average factory workweeks contributed to the leading index, while industrial production made the largest positive contribution to the coincident index.

The Federal Reserve reported last week that manufacturing output increased 0.3 percent in September, with gains in machinery, primary metals, fabricated metal products, electrical equipment, and semiconductors offsetting weakness in automobile production.

The Conference Board’s recession warning system examines the magnitude, duration, and breadth of declines in its leading index. A recession warning is triggered when the annualized six-month decline exceeds 4.3 percent, and a measure of the breadth of weakness among the index’s components falls to 50 or below.

Neither condition was present in September. The leading index increased at approximately a 1.2 percent annualized rate over the past six months, while its six-month diffusion index stood at 80, indicating that improvements were widespread.

The Conference Board’s Lagging Economic Index, which measures economic conditions that tend to change after the broader business cycle has turned, increased 0.5 percent in September to 121.1, following a 0.2 percent increase in August.

Taken together, the leading and coincident indicators suggest the U.S. economy remains on an expansionary path, with stronger underlying momentum than was evident earlier this year.