The Strait of Hormuz off the coast of Iran is of central importance for the trade of oil and liquefied natural gas.

To date, approximately one fifth of all oil transport around the globe has been routed through this bottleneck.

That’s why the strait’s closure has fuelled supply fears among buyers and raised questions about alternative sources of supply - including oil sourced from Africa.

Can Africa’s oil-producing countries increase their production in the short term and thus help stabilise global market prices?

Dependence on crude oil in particular is so great that the price increases since the start of the US-Israeli attacks on Iran have raised worries not only among companies relying on the energy sector, but have also sounded alarm bells within governments and among consumers worldwide.

READ | Africa urges restraint as US-Israel strikes escalate in Iran

“[Africa’s oil and gas sector] can help, but not quickly enough and not on the scale that would be required,” Robert Kappel, the former president of the Hamburg-based GIGA Institute (German Institute for Global and Area Studies), told DW.

What role does Africa’s energy supply play in the short term?

Africa’s contribution to alleviate the stresses of the current supply and price crisis for oil and gas can only be limited, says Stefan Liebing, managing director of the investment company Conjuncta, which focuses on the African continent.

“Africa’s role lies more in the medium term, especially in the supply of natural gas,” Liebing told DW.

He added that since 2022, European buyers have already been competing for African gas, as they no longer wish to purchase reserves from Russia.

Nigeria: no short-term solution

Africa’s largest oil producer, Nigeria, “definitely has the potential” for higher production output volumes, says Nigerian analyst Ayodele Oni.

“The biggest obstacle is the lack of significant spare capacity,” Oni told DW, stressing the fact that the West African nation currently does not have the full technical and operational capacity to respond to the sudden supply disruptions.

In the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) oil market monthly report for March 2026, Nigeria’s production was listed at 1.42 million barrels per day - with additional available capacity at zero.

“The current production level already reflects the maximum volume the country can maintain in the short term,” Oni explains.

“There is no buffer that could be quickly activated in response to market shocks.”

To produce more, significant investments would be necessary - at best, there would be a chance to make arrangements for the medium term.

What does Nigeria’s oil industry need to increase its output?

According to Oni, there are also issues that hinder rapid production growth, which would need to be addressed first, such as inadequate infrastructure, an outdated pipeline network, underfunding, and security problems in the Niger Delta, the centre of Nigeria’s oil economy.

Add to that the lengthy development periods that major upstream projects take, especially deepwater developments, and it becomes clear that increasing production would be no easy feat.

“For such projects [deepwater developments], several years often pass between investment approval and the first oil production. That means even rising global prices that create incentives for investment would not immediately bring new volumes to market,” Oni emphasises.

Although Nigeria has not introduced any new measures in response to the current global supply crisis, initiatives to increase oil and gas production are now being pushed forward.

As one example, Oni cites the government-backed “One Million Barrels” project, which focuses on reactivating shut-in wells, accelerating interventions and removing regulatory delays that had previously slowed field operations.

Tax reforms are also intended to attract investment and support production growth as part of that package.

Despite improvements in security, less oil theft and better monitoring processes, Nigeria’s oil production is still nowhere near the level that the government of President Bola Tinubu had set as a target when taking office, says Clementine Wallop, senior analyst for Sub-Saharan Africa at the consulting firm Horizon Engage.

“In this crisis situation, Nigeria will continue with all these initiatives. But no magic button can simply be pressed to allow the country to benefit from higher prices and ease the supply crisis on the market,” Wallop highlights.

Nigeria: selling crude to import refined fuels

Another problem - albeit primarily for the domestic market rather than for the global economy - is the dilapidated state of the country’s state-run refineries to process oil.

According to analyst Oni, Nigeria had been largely dependent on importing refined fuels while exporting crude oil in the past, mainly to use the proceeds of the export sales to buy gasoline and diesel for the domestic market.

Since 2024, this situation has somewhat improved: In Lagos, 650 000 barrels are processed daily in Africa’s largest private refinery, built by multi-billionaire Aliko Dangote.

The Dangote refinery now supplies the domestic market with around 60 million litres of fuel per day, in the absence of sufficient state infrastructures able to meet public demand.

How much oil could Angola bring to market?

Angola is Sub-Saharan Africa’s second-largest oil producer.

The country in southwestern Africa left the international oil cartel OPEC in 2023 in order to decide more flexibly on how much oil it chooses to bring to world markets and when.

Luanda is investing heavily in increasing oil production volumes while also expanding the development of natural gas reserves for the LNG market, giving it somewhat of a competitive edge.

Angolan energy expert Flavio Inocencio told DW: “Angola has become attractive again for Western investors because of the war in Ukraine and the crisis in the Middle East.”

Angola’s government has so far remained cautious in its response to the latest developments: News agency Bloomberg quoted Economy Minister Jose de Lima Massano on 6 March as saying that price increases always bring “positive news” for oil-producing countries.

At the same time, however, he warned that imports of other goods needed in his country would also become more expensive due to higher transport costs affecting everyone.

Analyst Inocencio has a more sober view.

He believes that even if African oil producers such as Nigeria and Angola could supply more crude oil in the short term, they would not be able to compensate for the volumes lost due to the conflict in the Middle East.

“Africa produces only 10% of global output,” Inocencio said.

“That is not enough to replace the roughly 20 million barrels of oil that are shipped through the Strait of Hormuz every day.”

This article was originally published on dw.com.