PERU · CLIMATE AND TRADE

Peru’s farm export boom, which fills US shelves with blueberries and grapes, has almost stalled. Exporters fear El Niño could make it worse.

Peru farm exports grew just 1.9% to US$8.0 billion from January to August, the exporters’ association ADEX said on Thursday, 8 October. A year earlier, the same January-to-August period showed growth of 21%.

The slowdown matters in the United States, the largest buyer of Peruvian fruit, vegetables and coffee. ADEX warned that El Niño, a Pacific warming that brings heavy rain and heat, could now hit northern crops such as blueberries.

Three Months in the Red

ADEX, based in Lima, represents Peruvian exporters and publishes trade data through its research centre, CIEN-ADEX. Its release said five of the first eight months closed with growth and three with declines.

According to the figures, reported by the business daily Gestión, exports fell 4.8% in May, 0.9% in June and 2.8% in July. August brought a small recovery of 1.5%.

Total farm shipments reached US$8.005 billion, against US$7.856 billion a year earlier. That is about a tenth of Peru’s total exports in the period.

The group said the result worried exporters, because earlier years were far stronger. Growth in the same period reached 20% in 2024.

Water intake works of the Chavimochic irrigation project, which supplies export farmland on Peru’s northern coast. Exporters say El Niño weather threatens northern fruit crops. Photo: Edgaralexperu / Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 4.0)

Fruit Holds Up as Cocoa Falls

Agro-industrial goods, which Peru classes as non-traditional exports, made up 90.3% of the total. Those shipments rose 1.8% to US$7.231 billion.

Fruit was still the bright spot, with sales of US$4.561 billion. Blueberry exports rose 47.9%, grapes 17.6% and avocados 8.3% in value.

Cocoa told a different story. San Martín, an Amazon region that grows about half of Peru’s cocoa, suffered rain and humidity from March to May.

That weather damaged flowering and ripening, and volumes fell. Bigger harvests in Ivory Coast and Ghana also pushed world cocoa prices down.

Mangoes, fresh asparagus, citrus and cocoa powder also shipped lower volumes. Coffee exports edged up 0.6% to US$701.7 million, helped by an early harvest that ADEX linked to El Niño.

Growers Warn the Trend May Last

José Antonio Mejía chairs the coffee and cocoa committee of ADEX. He said this year’s harvest lacked its usual peak in June and July, with declines of 15% to 30%.

Mejía warned that the trend could continue until the end of the year. He called for a plant-health campaign and more resources for small producers.

The warning comes as Peru braces for El Niño. ENFEN, the state committee that monitors the phenomenon, has issued updates every two weeks, most recently on 28 September.

In May, ENFEN said coastal El Niño conditions could last until February 2027, Gestión reported. Northern farm regions such as Piura and La Libertad grow much of the fruit sold abroad.

What It Means for You

The United States, the Netherlands and Spain take 57% of Peru’s non-traditional farm exports. Earlier ADEX data showed US buyers took US$1.4 billion of these goods from January to May, nearly double the Dutch figure.

For US shoppers, Peru is a major off-season supplier of blueberries, grapes, avocados and asparagus. If El Niño damages northern farms, supermarket supply and prices could tighten this winter.

Shipments to the US of traditional farm goods, mainly coffee, still rose 16.1%, ADEX data show.

What Is Not Known

The full ADEX release text could not be opened online, so the detailed figures rely on its summary and on Gestión’s report. ADEX has not said how much of the slowdown El Niño caused, and it blamed cocoa losses on heavy rain.

It is also unclear how badly the blueberry and grape harvests, which peak from late in the year, will be hit. Peru’s government has not published a new farm export forecast.

What Comes Next

ENFEN’s next communiqué is expected in mid-October, in line with its two-week schedule. ADEX’s next monthly report will show whether September brought a recovery.

The slowdown does not mean exports are shrinking overall. Peru’s total exports jumped 34.3% to US$74.1 billion on mining, ADEX said on 6 October.

Frequently Asked Questions

How much did Peru farm exports grow in 2026?

They rose 1.9% to US$8.005 billion from January to August, according to ADEX. The same period grew 21% in 2025.

Why are Peruvian farm exports slowing?

Heavy rain and humidity hurt cocoa, and mangoes and asparagus shipped less. Lower world cocoa prices also weighed on sales.

What is El Niño?

It is a periodic warming of the Pacific Ocean that changes weather worldwide. In Peru it usually brings heat, heavy rain and floods to the northern coast.

Which Peruvian products do Americans buy?

The main ones are blueberries, grapes, avocados, asparagus and coffee. The United States is the largest single market for Peruvian farm goods.

Sources: ADEX, press release of 8 October 2026; ADEX, press releases of 6 and 8 October 2026; ENFEN, official communiqués; Gestión; Gestión, ENFEN outlook; Revista Economía, ADEX January-May data (all accessed 9 October 2026).