Alberto Núñez Feijóo, the PP leader, in Santander in 2023. File photo.

Spain heads into its 29 November general election with the conservative Partido Popular (PP) ahead in most polls and in prediction markets. Our Spain Election 2026 hub tracks every development.

Why the Right Leads Most Polls

Spain’s two big parties are the PP and the governing Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE) of Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez. Vox, a nationalist conservative party to the PP’s right, comes third in every recent survey.

NC Report, a Spanish polling firm, surveyed voters from 22 to 24 October. It put the PP at 32.9%, PSOE at 25.8% and Vox at 19.0%.

SocioMétrica, another Spanish firm, found a similar picture in fieldwork on 10 and 11 October. It had the PP at 32.6%, PSOE at 26.2% and Vox at 18.8%.

GESOP, a third firm, was less kind to the PP in a poll ending 8 October. Even so, it placed the PP first at 28.7%, with PSOE at 26.1% and Vox at 18.9%.

What Prediction Markets Say

Kalshi, a prediction exchange regulated in the US by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), asks who will be prime minister after the vote. At 5:24 a.m. ET on 29 October (10:24 a.m. in Madrid), Feijóo stood at 78.0%, Sánchez at 13.0% and Vox leader Santiago Abascal at 3.0%.

A second Kalshi market asks whether PP and Vox together will win at least 50% of the vote. It priced that at 40.0%.

The prime-minister market had traded 32,715 contracts. These prices are bets, not polls, and can move within minutes of news.

Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.

Why the State Survey Disagrees

The Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas (CIS) is Spain’s state-run public opinion institute. Its October barometer, based on more than 5,000 interviews from 1 to 6 October, put PSOE at 34%, the PP at 22.2% and Vox at 17.1%.

That is a gap of nearly 12 points in the opposite direction from the private polls. Nothing we could verify explains it yet, so the size of any lead remains unsettled.

What Is Not Known

We found no verified report of a new official result, court ruling or change to the 29 November timetable. The final seat split, the smaller regional parties and the question of who can reach the 176 seats needed for a Congress majority all remain open.

It is also unclear whether the CIS gap reflects method or a real late shift in the campaign. Prediction markets and private polls agree on direction, but both can be wrong.

What It Means for US Readers

A PP-led government would replace a left-led one in one of the euro area’s biggest economies. Spain’s weight in European Union budget and migration debates would shift with it.

American investors and newsrooms increasingly watch exchanges such as Kalshi and Polymarket for early signals. Spain offers a live test of how real-money odds track polls a month before a vote.

Congress is due to meet on 23 December, so a new government could take shape quickly after the vote.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is ahead in Spain’s election polls?

The conservative Partido Popular (PP) leads most private polls. NC Report’s 22 to 24 October survey shows the PP at 32.9% against 25.8% for the Socialists (PSOE), but the state-run Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas (CIS) shows PSOE ahead.

What do prediction markets say about Spain’s election?

On Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, Alberto Núñez Feijóo had a 78.0% implied chance of becoming prime minister at 5:24 a.m. ET on 29 October. These are bets, not polls.

Sources: NC Report, SocioMétrica and GESOP polls; Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas (CIS) October barometer; Kalshi markets; Spain’s Official State Gazette (BOE).

This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief