Serbia’s opposition Student List is projected to win 52.9% of the vote, compared with 38.8% for Aleksandar Vucic’s United Serbia coalition, according to the final projection released by pollster Ipsos and election monitor CeSID.

The figures are based on 96% of their processed sample, with estimated voter turnout reaching 69.3%.

The Socialist-led coalition of Ivica Dacic trails far behind with just 2.2%, below the 3% parliamentary threshold. All other electoral lists are projected to receive less than 1% each.

The figures remain unofficial, with final results yet to be announced by Serbia’s electoral commission.

Hungarian Prime Minister Peter Magyar, who unseated Viktor Orbán in April after 16 years in power, has congratulated Serbia’s opposition Student List on its projected election victory.

“I have just spoken by phone with the leaders of the Students’ List,” Magyar wrote on X, saying he had assured them of Hungary’s support.

“I was delighted to hear how much strength our victory in April had given them during this difficult struggle,” he added, drawing parallels between the two countries’ political upheavals.

Magyar’s Tisza party defeated Orbán’s Fidesz in Hungary’s April 12 parliamentary election. Serbia’s final official election results have yet to be confirmed.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Antonio Costa have rushed to congratulate Serbia’s opposition Student List on its projected election victory, even as the country’s electoral authorities have yet to announce the final official results.

The two EU leaders published virtually identical statements on X, praising the high voter turnout and pledging Brussels’ support for reforms involving the rule of law, media freedom, anti-corruption measures and democratic institutions.

“We stand ready to support reforms on the rule of law, media freedom, the fight against corruption and strong democratic institutions,” both wrote, also expressing their willingness to advance Serbia’s future in the European Union.

Serbia’s ruling Progressive Party (SNS) accepts the preliminary election outcome and intends to continue its political struggle in parliament, party candidate Marina Ragus has told Tanjug.

“The voice of the people is the voice of God. And you can only respect that,” she said, noting that the SNS expects to secure more than 105 parliamentary seats after 14 years in power.

Ragus suggested that moving into opposition could allow the party to reassess its policies and reform its ranks.

“Brussels won,” she added, questioning what the election outcome would mean for Serbia’s refusal to impose sanctions on Russia and its economic cooperation with China.

Crowds of supporters of the Student List have continued celebrating in central Belgrade following projections indicating victory in Serbia’s snap parliamentary election.

The festivities have continued into the night, even as the official vote count remains incomplete and final results have yet to be announced.

Senior officials in Republika Srpska, the Serb-majority constituent entity of Bosnia and Herzegovina, have congratulated Serbia’s opposition Student List on its projected election victory, pledging to maintain close ties with Belgrade.

SNSD leader Milorad Dodik thanked Vucic for years of cooperation, while Republika Srpska parliamentary speaker Nenad Stevandic said Serbia’s electoral choice must be respected.

“Vucic remains great in his deeds even though he lost the elections,” Stevandic wrote on X, calling for peace and stability.

Republika Srpska Prime Minister Savo Minic also congratulated the Student List, stressing that a strong and stable Serbia remains a pillar of Republika Srpska and regional peace.

Serbia’s projected election victory by the opposition Student List will not lead to sanctions against Russia, Jovo Bakic, a professor and representative of the movement, has told RT Balkan.

“We respect Russia both as a great power and as our historically important partner and, in many cases, protector,” Bakic said during an appearance on RT Balkan’s Serbia Chooses program, dismissing former President Aleksandar Vucic’s prediction that a new government would sanction Moscow within months.

“We survived UN sanctions and know very well what an ordeal it is,” he added.

“Sanctions from small Serbia against Russia would not change anything, but symbolically they would be very bad,” Bakic said, insisting that Belgrade’s policy toward Moscow would remain unchanged.

The Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS), led by Ivica Dacic, is projected to win just 2.3% of the vote in the snap parliamentary election, falling short of the 3% electoral threshold. If confirmed by official results, the outcome would leave the Socialists without representation in Serbia’s parliament for the first time since 1990.

“We will analyze where we could have done better and where we made mistakes,” Dacic told a press conference, acknowledging the disappointing result. He said his health had limited his ability to campaign but vowed to continue the party’s political struggle.

“There was no room for a third party, and that third party was us,” he said, adding that the SPS would oppose any policies it considered contrary to Serbia’s national interests, whether in government or opposition.

Serbia’s opposition Student List has invited Belgrade residents to gather on Milutin Milanković Boulevard to celebrate its projected election victory, while urging supporters to remain peaceful and avoid provocations.

“The job is not done,” the student movement wrote on X, emphasizing that the electoral process was still underway and that its representatives were continuing to count votes and serve on election commissions.

The group urged supporters to withdraw from potential flashpoints and celebrate “peacefully and with dignity.”

“This victory belongs to all of us,” Student List representative Radomir Saičić said, describing the result as a source of hope for a just and democratic Serbia. He stressed that a major victory also brings great responsibility.

Serbia’s opposition Student List is projected to secure 139 of the 250 seats in parliament, compared with 104 for Aleksandar Vucic’s United Serbia coalition, according to preliminary estimates by polling agency Ipsos and election monitor CeSID.

Based on 56% of their processed sample, the Student List is projected to receive 52% of the vote, against 39.3% for Vucic’s coalition.

The figures are not official election results, which are being compiled separately by the Republic Electoral Commission.