The House of the National Assembly in Belgrade. File photo. (Photo: Kallerna, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons)

Published Sunday, 25 October, 2:00 p.m. ET · Source: CeSID, a Belgrade election-monitoring group, with Ipsos, a polling firm

More than 60% of Serbia’s registered voters had cast a ballot by 17:00 CET (noon ET) in Sunday’s early parliamentary election. CeSID, the Centre for Free Elections and Democracy, and Ipsos, a polling company, estimated turnout at 60.9% from a sample of 750 polling stations.

That is 13.7 points above the same hour in December 2023. We covered the build-up in our Saturday preview, the campaign ban before the vote, the 6.45 million voter register and the final opinion polls.

Turnout Runs Far Above 2023

CeSID said turnout at 17:00 CET in 2023 was 47.2%, according to N1, a Serbian news channel. Its estimate for 14:00 CET today was 46.4%, so turnout rose by about 14.5 points in three hours.

The Republic Electoral Commission (RIK), the state body that runs the vote, put turnout at 56.38% at 16:00 CET, against 42.36% in 2023. The CeSID figure is an estimate from a sample, not a count of every polling station.

File photo: Serbian flags at a night protest in central Belgrade.

Reports of Irregularities Pile Up

CeSID recorded 260 reports of possible irregularities by 17:00 CET, according to Danas, a Belgrade daily, and N1. It is not clear how many of the reports will be confirmed.

Danas and N1 also reported incidents at polling stations across the country, and RIK’s chairman described a care home incident in Mladenovac, a town near Belgrade. We have not confirmed the overall scale independently.

What Prediction Markets Say

On Kalshi, the list of the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS), President Aleksandar Vučić’s party, was priced at 55% to win, and the student-protest list at 48%, at 2:00 p.m. ET. The two contracts are priced separately, so they need not add to 100%, and 99,057 contracts had traded.

On Polymarket, a global prediction market, a turnout contract with US$152,179 traded priced a final turnout of 70% or more at 73% and 66% to 70% at 26%, at 2:00 p.m. ET. Kalshi is regulated in the US by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and all of these prices are bets, not polls.

Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.

What It Means for You

For readers in the United States, high turnout makes the outcome harder to call, and it shows how many Serbians want to be heard in a vote that tests President Vučić’s long hold on power.

If you plan to travel to Serbia, check your government’s travel advice, because incidents were reported at polling stations today.

What Is Not Known

No result or projection is available, and the winner and the size of any majority are unknown. Danas reported that CeSID and Ipsos expect first projections between 21:30 and 22:00 CET (4:30 to 5:00 p.m. ET).

The number of confirmed irregularities is unclear. The final turnout is not yet known.

Sources

N1 · Danas · Tanjug, Serbia’s state news agency · Nova.rs, a Belgrade news site · Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia · Kalshi · Polymarket

This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief

Frequently Asked Questions

What was Serbia’s turnout at 5 p.m. CET?

An estimate from the monitoring group CeSID and pollster Ipsos put turnout at 60.9% of registered voters at 17:00 CET (noon ET). It was based on a sample of 750 polling stations.

How does turnout compare with 2023?

At 17:00 CET in December 2023, turnout was 47.2%, so this vote is 13.7 points ahead at the same hour.

When do polling stations close in Serbia?

Polling stations close at 20:00 CET on Sunday 25 October 2026, which is 3:00 p.m. ET.

Who is CeSID?

CeSID, the Centre for Free Elections and Democracy, is a Belgrade-based election-monitoring group. It publishes turnout estimates with Ipsos on election day.

What do prediction markets say about the vote?

At 2:00 p.m. ET, Kalshi priced the list of President Vučić’s party at 55% and the student-protest list at 48% to win. These are bets, not polls.