As many as 25 of the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK)’s 47 legislators voted in favour of the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) government in the confidence vote moved by Chief Minister C. Joseph Vijay. This has further deepened the crisis within the party that finished third in the recent Assembly election. The party’s general secretary, Edappadi K. Palaniswami, and 21 of his supporters voted against the TVK government.

A key question is whether the dissidents have incurred disqualification under the anti-defection law. Mr. Palaniswami is in an unenviable position. If he seeks the rebels’ disqualification, the move may lead to a formal split in the party, and may result in byelections that would lead to further marginalisation. On the other hand, even if he doesn’t, the other faction, led by former ministers S.P. Velumani and C. V. Shanmugam, may gain the upper hand within the party structure. However, what stands in his favour is that the dissidents are in no position to save themselves from disqualification, as they do not have the requisite two-thirds’ strength to claim that they have merged with another party. The 2023 judgment of a Constitution Bench on related questions arising from the anti-defection law is also not in their favour.