Since 2024, there have been on and off rumors claiming that Pakistan is on the verge of acquiring approximately 40 Chinese-made fifth-generation J-35 fighter jets. To date, however, no contract has been signed, nor has a single fighter been delivered. Recently, these rumors have resurfaced once again. 

As things stand, neither Pakistan nor its longstanding rival, India, possesses any fifth-generation fighters. The acquisition of 40 J-35s by Pakistan would therefore be a game-changer, fundamentally altering the balance of power on the Indian subcontinent.

That said, Beijing is unlikely to approve such a sale in the near-term. It remains wary of upsetting the regional balance of power, particularly as it must prioritize meeting its domestic military needs – and Pakistan’s defense budget already stretched thin.

Unwilling to Upset the Balance of Power in South Asia

Over the past decade, China has provided Pakistan with extensive economic and military support – in part to establish it as a military counterweight to India. For Beijing, a Pakistan capable of holding its own forces India to divert resources away from the disputed China-India border, while simultaneously securing the section of the Belt and Road Initiative that traverses Pakistan-administered Kashmir. 

Beijing, however, remains wary of giving Pakistan too decisive a military edge over India, lest it upset the delicate balance of power on the Indian subcontinent – and, in doing so, risk unravelling the already fragile peace. 

Skirmishes already sporadically break out between India and Pakistan along the Line of Control – the de facto border partitioning the disputed region of Kashmir between Pakistani- and Indian-administered regions. Should Beijing decide to sell 40 J-35s to Pakistan, it would increase the likelihood of Islamabad seeking to alter the territorial status quo in Kashmir. 

Although Pakistan spends far less on its military than India, it is already capable of punching well above its weight. During the 2025 India-Pakistan conflict, both sides were operating fourth-generation fighter jets – Pakistan’s Chinese-made J-10Cs and India’s French-made Rafales and Russian-made Sukhoi Su-30MKIs. 

Despite its numerical disadvantage and technological parity, Pakistan shot down five Indian fighters without sustaining a single loss of its own. According to Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, Pakistan could have inflicted even greater losses but deliberately refrained from pressing its advantage – likely out of fear that a cornered India would resort to escalation.

The induction of J-35s would give Pakistan’s military a further leg up in future fighting – especially since India currently possesses no fifth-generation fighters and is unlikely to acquire any in the near-term. It is not in China’s interests to be drawn into a conflict between two nuclear-armed states in South Asia when its core interests in East Asia demands its undivided attention.

Domestic Military Needs Take Priorities

Currently, China has three aircraft carriers, with a fourth under construction and up to five more planned as part of its ambition to build a blue-water navy. Despite this rapid naval buildup, however, the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) Air Force relies on a single type of fifth-generation fighter capable of taking-off from carriers – the J-35. 

Only two years have passed since the J-35 made its official debut. Production has yet to reach the numbers needed to fully equip China’s existing carriers. Even for a country widely dubbed the “world’s factory,” ramping up production will take time.

Time, however, is not on China’s side. 

For the past decade, China and the United States have been locked in a geopolitical rivalry known as the “new Cold War.” Although relations somewhat eased after U.S. President Donald Trump traveled to China this May for high-level talks, underlying tensions remain. 

For Beijing, this means that the PLAN must be able to stand toe-to-toe with the U.S. Navy’s 11 carriers and seven amphibious assault ships (each a de facto carrier in its own right) – and as soon as possible.

To sell 40 J-35s to Pakistan now, therefore, would be to set that timeline further back. Even a single squadron could leave China’s carriers understrength in the event of a naval stand-off with the U.S. Navy.

Beyond setting back China’s naval modernization goals, selling J-35s to Pakistan carries significant risks. 

The J-35 originally began its lifecycle as a privately funded project by the Chinese aircraft manufacturer Shengyang Aircraft Corporation to attract foreign buyers. At first, the J-35’s development lacked official PLA backing. As the project matured, however, the PLA took interest, leading to the J-35’s induction by both the air force and the navy.

As the only Chinese fifth-generation fighter capable of taking off from carriers, the J-35 has become the backbone of the PLAN Air Force, fundamentally shifting the calculus. An export variant remains under development, but its fate now hangs in the air. 

While Pakistan stands as one of China’s most important partners, Beijing would be shortsighted to overlook Pakistan’s longstanding close ties with the United States. 

A telling example is Pakistan’s fleet of approximately 75 U.S.-made F-16 fighters, which form the backbone of the PAF. These aircraft require routine maintenance that can only be carried out by U.S. technicians. As a result, U.S. technicians are a recurring presence at Pakistani airbases – which inevitably includes the very same bases where J-35s would be stationed, should China agree to sell them. 

This overlap creates a scenario where sensitive Chinese technology would be placed within close physical proximity to U.S. technicians, thereby raising concerns of technological leakage. 

Admittedly, J-35s sold to Pakistan would be an export variant, stripped of the aircraft’s most advanced features. Yet even with these downgrades, many of the J-35’s core features will remain unchanged. Even the leakage of seemingly minor features – such as the J-35’s radar signature – could give the United States and its allies an edge over China in future conflicts.

For China, therefore, the decision to sell the J-35 would carry ramifications far exceeding those of any previous Chinese arms sale. The J-10, for example, is a capable but considerably older model with comparatively less sensitive technology. Any espionage, therefore, would pose only limited risks. The J-35, by contrast, represents the pinnacle of Chinese military aviation, making its sale a gamble of an entirely different magnitude.

No Economic Incentives

Just a year ago, Pakistan’s economy was showing signs of recovery from the economic crisis that beset it between 2021 and 2024. Today, however, much of that progress has been undone.

The outbreak of the Israel-U.S. war on Iran this February saw Pakistan cast in the role of mediator when no other countries could or would shoulder that responsibility. Diplomatically, that gamble paid off. Pakistan’s international standing improved. Its economy, however, paid a steep price. Oil and gas prices skyrocketed, while remittances plummeted, leaving Pakistan once again reeling from “three highs and one low”: high debt, high inflation, high deficit, and low growth.

Against this backdrop, even if Beijing were willing to sell Pakistan 40 J-35s, Pakistan would not be able to afford it. The country has been trapped in a debt spiral for over a decade, with over half of its tax revenues devoted to servicing loans. That leaves little room for all other state functions – including defense.

This tight defense budget could make it difficult to even cover the upkeep of 40 J-35s, let alone finance their purchase without diverting funds from more pressing needs – a trade-off that cash-strapped Pakistan can hardly afford.

Theoretically, Beijing could finance Pakistan’s J-35 purchase through loans, as it did with the J-10. In practice, however, it lacks the strategic incentive to do so (as outlined earlier) and such a move would, moreover, remove the economic incentive.

Beijing’s earlier decision to sell Pakistan J-10s was out of necessity. At the time, the balance of power on the Indian subcontinent was tilting in India’s favor, and Beijing could not afford to stand idly by while that happened. For years, the PAF had relied on its U.S.-made F-16s, which, while once capable, are showing their age. More importantly, the PAF’s F-16s are hamstrung by stringent U.S. end-user agreements that prohibited their use against India. 

Now that the PAF has 36 J-10s, however, that problem has become a thing of the past. These J-10s have bought Pakistan some much-needed breathing room – and for a country teetering on the edge of yet another economic crisis, J-35s are a white elephant best left for another day.

Looking Ahead

While Beijing is unlikely to approve the sale of J-35s to Pakistan in the near-term, this does not mean that it will never do so. In fact, Pakistani pilots have already begun training to operate the fighter, suggesting that preparations are underway. 

Two scenarios could prompt Beijing to approve the sale. The first is if India acquires fifth-generation fighters, which would decisively tilt the balance of power on the Indian subcontinent in India’s favor. The second is if Pakistan finds itself caught on the backfoot in a conflict with India. In either case, China would step in by selling J-35s – whether at a discounted price or through loans – both to prevent a decisive Pakistani defeat and to preserve its regional influence.