Quick Read

• Bitcoin fell to $77,300 on September 12 after hot August CPI data pushed Polymarket odds of a September 16 Fed rate hike to 83%.

• US spot Bitcoin ETFs posted four straight outflow days while long-term holders sold 539,000 BTC into the $77,000 to $80,000 zone, creating a stubborn supply wall.

• A close below $76,500 opens a drop toward the $72,000 to $74,000 range, while a dovish FOMC outcome could flip ETF flows positive and relieve yield pressure.

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Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) trades near $77,400, down from $79,155 on September 9 and from an intraday peak of $82,000 on September 4, a fall of 2.2% and 5.6%, respectively. August CPI came in hot on September 11, and the rates market repriced the same day.

Bitcoin is fighting three things at once: a repriced September 16 rate hike, a run of ETF redemptions, and holders selling into every push toward $80,000. So what's pushing Bitcoin lower with three trading days to go before the Federal Open Market Committee decision?

Hot Core Inflation Pushed Hike Odds to 83%

Core CPI, which measures inflation excluding food and energy, rose 0.3% month over month against 0.2% expected, and Polymarket moved the September 16 hike to 83% after the release. The Federal Reserve's target rate upper bound stands at 3.75%, unchanged since December 2025.

Brent crude broke $100 a barrel on September 9, hours after US forces struck Iran-linked tankers near the Strait of Hormuz. Energy prices feed core inflation through transportation, packaging and manufacturing, so oil holding above $100 flowed straight into the August CPI report.

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A hike would push bond yields higher, and when a government bond pays close to 5%, some savers move money out of coins that pay nothing. Bitcoin has no coupon and no cash flow, so the cost of holding it rises with yields. Higher inflation-adjusted yields also tighten financial conditions, and tighter conditions drain money from equities and crypto alike.