A street sign in Little Havana, the heart of Miami’s Cuban community. File photo.

Published Wednesday, 28 October, 3:20 p.m. ET (3:20 p.m. Havana) · Source: Florida International University (FIU) Cuba Poll 2026, Polymarket

Miami’s Cuban Americans are angry about deportations, yet most of them still plan to vote Republican next week. A new survey by Florida International University (FIU), a university in Miami, found that 76% disapprove of the Trump administration’s push to deport more Cubans without criminal records. Even so, 68% say they will back the Republican for Congress on 3 November.

The result adds a twist to the wider story of cuba news and US politics. The community that fled Fidel Castro’s Cuba is split between its anger at Washington’s migration policy and its loyalty to the party that promises a hard line on Havana.

Anger That Does Not Change the Vote

The poll found that 76% disapprove of increased deportations of Cubans who have no criminal record. Opposition reaches into the president’s own party, because 63% of Republicans in the sample reject the policy too.

Yet the ballot choice barely moves. For the US House of Representatives, 68% back the Republican candidate in their district and 28% the Democrat, a gap of 40 points.

Among the registered voters in the sample, 53% call themselves Republicans, 27% independents and 18% Democrats.

What Cuban Americans Say They Want Instead

The wish list is concrete. 87% want Washington to resume processing immigration benefits for Cubans who already live in the United States, and 86% of Republicans agree.

The Senate and Governor Races

In the Senate race, Republican Ashley Moody, who was appointed to the seat in 2025, leads Democrat Angie Nixon 51% to 26% among respondents who named a choice. Many others had not yet decided.

For governor, Republican Byron Donalds, a US congressman, holds 60% against 24% for Democrat David Jolly. The share of undecided voters was large here too.

Shops on Calle Ocho in Little Havana. File photo. Photo: Sharon Hahn Darlin, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons

What Prediction Markets Say

On Polymarket, a platform where users bet real money on events, traders put Moody’s chance of winning the Florida Senate seat at 91.5%. About US$312,849 has been traded on that market, as of 3:09 p.m. ET on 28 October.

Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.

What It Means for US Readers

Florida’s Cuban voters have delivered Republican margins for years, and this poll suggests the bloc is holding even under strain. A backlash over deportations, if it comes, may show up later rather than in this election.

Watch the margins in Miami-Dade on 3 November for the first real test.

What Is Not Known

The poll covers Cuban Americans in Miami-Dade only, so it cannot speak for all Cubans in the United States.

A large share of voters was undecided in both statewide races, and how they will break is unknown. The poll also does not say which way the 63% of Republicans who oppose the deportations will vote.

Frequently Asked Questions

What did the 2026 FIU Cuba Poll find?

It found that 76% of Cuban Americans in Miami-Dade disapprove of increased deportations of Cubans without criminal records. It also found that 68% would vote for the Republican House candidate.

How reliable is the survey?

FIU surveyed 1,004 Cuban American adults in Miami-Dade, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 points, meaning the true figure likely sits within that range. It covers Miami-Dade only.

Sources: FIU Cuba Poll, Polymarket, Cuba and US tensions explained, Cuba news hub.

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